Official Top-Ten Hopefuls Could Offer A Wagering Bonanza

The Oct. 3 Hambletonian/Breeders Crown Standardbred Poll represents 21 weeks of performances from all harness divisions, according to the opinions of industry. With about three weeks left until the Breeders Crown elim, five of the dozen divisions are do not have members on this list and only one horse is not eligible to a “Crown” race.  

Of the two divisions that have a pair of representatives in the Top Ten, only Manofmanymissions (Yankee Glide) in the soph-colt-trotting league appears to be heading for a Crown elim. The Kadabra-sired Daylon Magician has beaten the best of his mates each time they challenged him. It is reported that the colt will continue to race in the lucrative Ontario-sired-based finals but as of this writing there is no word if his connections will supplement to a Crown elim. 

These horses will be wagered upon heavily in the October elims and due to this high profile will provide bettors with choices that include any number of other performers that will offer better odds. Let’s look at the reasons any of them can be beaten. 

San Pail will have great advantages. One of these edges is Woodbine. Though he has beaten his division foes over the border, he will be very much at home here. But that is not a lock. Arch Madness ruled this division earlier in the season and now he is off the Top-Ten list. Still, he ranks as a threat.  

The foreign contingency will also influence the wagering. Commander Crowe and Rapide Lebel have accepted invitations to the final and the last three winners of the event—Enough Talk, Lucky Jim and Corleone Kosmos—are also available, giving San Pail the challenge of his career. 

We Will See has been an enormous success at four, being rivaled by older pacers and making them look old. But he works hard for his wins and that means any matter of inches during a trip can present a loss from veterans like Foiled Again (number 10 on the list now but earlier a leader). This has been a competitive division throughout a long 2011 campaign, so don’t hand the purse to “See” just yet. As for the Crown champ, indeed, we will see.

See You At Peelers (Bettor’s Delight) is training under medical supervision, being treated with medicine for a manageable heart problem. Whether she gets into the events or not is a decision pending. Don’t be surprised if she returns with verve and a fresh feeling that makes her look best again in a division taken over recently by fillies that were inferior. 

Big Bad John (Western Hanover) and Roll With Joe (Cam’s Card Shark) are, in our opinion, very close to one another in talent. However, they are clearly part of a crop that has not produced a single dominant colt. These two readily beat one another or others of equal talent, making the wagering on this division’s elims bet-worthy.  

If Up The Credit (Western Terror) can win a $1-million race and Custard The Dragon (Dragon Again) can roll better than “Joe,” then the gelding, Alsace Hanover (The Panderosa), has a shot. As well, deal some chances to others not on the Top Ten: Hugadragon (Dragon Again), Powerful Mist (Powerful Toy), Rockabillie (Rocknroll Hanover), Rollitwithharry (Rocknroll Hanover), Shadyshark Hanover (Cam’s Card Shark), Westwardho Hanover (Dragon Again) and even a return visit from Fashion Delight (Bettor’s Delight). It’s open season for winners in the soph-colt pacing elims.  

Meanwhile, only one freshman makes the grade, the unbeaten American Jewel (American Ideal). She is clearly the best of the green gals but can she stay unbeaten through the Crowns? Her split, should there be more than one elim in this division, may be the only that I would consider passing.   

Manofmanymissions (Yankee Glide) trots or he doesn’t trot and no one knows why or when. That has been a problem throughout the soph-colt trotting season. When he is floating there seems to be no other that can take a win from him, however, the speculation every time he takes flight is intense. If “Daylon” gets in, there could be more trouble for “Man” than he can handle. So this Crown challenge, with Daylon or not, is still a wagering probable. 

Dreamfair Eternal is a great pacing mare but she has off nights that behoove the brightest of handicappers. We beat her with Anndrovette and you may do so again at the same luscious price. We nabbed Laughandbehappy most recently and she has beat both of them.  

By and large, this season’s Breeders Crown, with elims on Oct. 21 and Oct. 22, will be presenting some fine wagering opportunities if this Top Ten list is any indication of public opinion. You can bet it all and follow our tweets for last-minute action as we cover all the Crowns live on the Internet in league with TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society. In the meantime, there are more preps and there will be more news, so continue to follow this blog and our two weekly TwinSpires harness blogs.

Back to the ‘Futurity’

Unexpected things happen this time of year in harness racing, even when one is not dealing with a crop as quirky as the 2011 soph-colt trotters. You could say that the members of this crop “make it or break it,” since so many have lost by their own missteps.  

On Oct. 2 at The Red Mile comes the Kentucky Futurity, the third jewel in the Trotting Triple Crown, though this year (with no available candidate) it is just one more Breeders Crown prep.  

The gals get to go, too, in the filly version for the sophs. They have also had their Achilles heels showing through the year. All of the action is available on TwinSpires and players of the “Futurity” card get 10X points for the dollars wagered.  

First, let’s look at the boys’ field. Ten of them are entered in The Red Mile event, worth $490,000, contested in two heats, each worth $196,000. One soph-colt trotter must win both heats to be the champ or there will be a $98,000 race-off between the pair of heat winners.  

Fawkes (post 7), Whit (post 8) and Dejarmbro (post 9, a $50,000 supplement) are not eligible to the “Crown.” A win could make connections consider buying into the event but for now that is a moot point.  

Hambo-winner Broad Bahn leaves from post 5 after a disturbing performance in the Canadian Trotting Classic that saw him quit on a dime while attempting the lead and finish 10^th. It was deemed that an irregular heartbeat was the cause. Since then, trainer Noel Daley has qualified the colt in 1:53.2 at the Lexington oval, allowing his appearance in the Futurity.  

Daley told Ken Weingartner of the USTA publicity department that he could not be sure if the problem would arise during the Futurity. He said, “There’s no rhyme or reason or pattern to [the condition]. Hopefully it’s a one-time deal. But obviously there is a concern.” Daley said “Bahn” was bright and healthy in his qualifier.  

Bahn’s main nemesis, Manofmanymissions is back in the thick of the action, a tepid favorite in the morning line over Bahn. Even without a condition like that which Bahn suffers, “Man” is apt to misstep at any time as well as he can smoothly float away from almost any competitors. So, his history tells us he will be an underlay.  

Post 1 is for VC Chocoholic, one of Trond Smedshammer’s two entries (Dejarmbro is the other). This colt has not been able to stay smooth enough to battle the others in the heavy competition. When he is on gait he has shown a lot of talent.  

Opening Night (post 2) was third in the Hambo, as we predicted (the triple was ruined by Whiskey Tax, who is missing in action here). We finally nabbed a win from this guy at 6-1 recently. He is a closer and may be flying at the end if speed or gaits collapse. He will be an overlay.  

Big Rigs (post 4) has not been able to live up to his frosh ability and as a speed horse would have to have some kind of luck to win either of these heats.  

Luckycharm Hanover (post 6) is also and also-trot in the division and needs some bad conduct around him to assist in a win.  

Live Jazz (post 10) hardly belongs here and this post doesn’t lend him much support.  

Under the circumstances, the scenario to hope for in heat one is where Opening Night can stay clear of trouble but get the kind of trouble that is manufactured by a speed duel. Any horse that wins the first heat will be in a better spot to win the second but odds will change drastically for a first-heat winner in the second chapter. Trying to hit this first one with an overlay is the true target. We can count on only one scenario, as prescribed with Opening Night, to catch a price here. It was bad enough when merely breaking was a problem with the best horses, now you have to deal with a heart problem that is just as unpredictable as any trotter that goes on a gallop.   

Futurity femmes

The “Oaks” winner, Bold And Fresh, is back to take on a similar crew and is back looking like the longshot she delivered in the Oaks. Why she would attract major wagers is beyond us, since there are “now” fillies here, each one as promising as the next.  

Pantholops, who we gave you at an astounding $34 win price last out, is a ton of speed that has found its gait and she is going to show some quick foot on the two-turn mile.  

Firstclassprincess is getting better for Trond Smedshammer, who is under-rated for his achievements with filly trotters and who is the only trainer responsible for a Trotting Triple Crown in recent memory.  

Lady Rainbow finally won after flirting with success while battling the best all season. In fact, she almost beat “Bold” in the Oaks with a stunning close that began too late to produce the top purse check.  

Hey Mister is the stealthy type, known to toss in a giant mile here and there—how about here? She has a 50-percent win rate, after all, for trainer Ross Croghan.  

Crys Dream was once the sweetheart of the division but tumbled amid controversy and a wicked turn of form. Still, she is not to be denied.  

The others could provide semi-surprises but all in all one of the five listed above should win the classic in any combination of two heats.

Glamour-boy trotting stars tested once more

The Canadian Trotting Classic at Mohawk on Saturday, Sept. 17, brings together another group of glamour-boy trotters, including the top Hambletonian characters, for another episode of division-title derby.  

Hambo-winner Broad Bahn is in the field, along with his division rival Manofmanymission. The latter has been performing much better than the former recently, being very strict with his stride and toppling all foes when he is on his best behavior.  

Last week Broad Bahn had it tough again, beaten by Daylon Magician, who was nowhere near the Meadowlands on the first Saturday in August. As well, he was the fan favorite and got up to please the crowd while the rest of the field practically lined up straight across the track.  

“Man” won his elim much easier.  

Mystery colts haunt this division lately. Aside from Daylon Magic’s sudden strength, Sim Brown got into the picture to make the final at 70-1. Imperial Court earned a berth here, seemingly racing way above his head.  

And the usual suspects return.  

Whiskey Tax was second in the Hambletonian and just won for us at 6-1. But that win doesn’t shake up this field too much. Dejarmbro seems to be tapering off from his early summer binge (he was not eligible for the Hambo).  

Whatever It Takes, our choice last week, was in the thick of the herd that could not beat “Daylon” last week. He was blocked and locked in, closing strongly. His work is cut out for him here.  

Chapter Seven has never been the same since his Hambo elim. He could not close fast enough after that race, took a rest, and returned with no signs of threatening the top of the class, including Blue Porsche. He was a monster before coming to America and then disappointed everyone by not making the Hambo final.  

Man should be the dead-on choice but considering how he has choked when it counts most, we will have to try to beat a low price. Perhaps Broad Bahn is ready to pull another wire-to-wire, timed-to-the-tee mile? He could do it and at a price like he gave us when we had him in the August classic (6-1). Remember that Man broke in the Hambo but did it in the stretch, giving an indication that Broad Bahn’s well-timed quarters shook him up.  

It’s a good scenario to back if the price is right.   

Check out the archives for results at Hambletonian Society and keep betting at TwinSpires.