Sophomore elims present looming longshots

On Saturday, Oct. 22, nine sophomore eliminations for the Breeders Crown finals are the features at Woodbine in Canada (there is also a single elim for the mare pacers). These battles for the berths in the finals’ fields on Oct. 29 have some great upset possibilities.  

In league with our TwinSpires blog this edition of “Countdown” offers selections that have the potential to win elims and boost exotics. Not being privy to closing odds at press time, we are assuming that our suggested contenders are outside the mainstream picks. We estimate 4-1 or up (unless otherwise specified) on all of them but, of course, guarantee nothing. You can judge as you watch and wager on TwimSpires and you can follow us on Twitter and the blog for late updates on both evenings.  

Saturday, Oct. 22

Race 1, 3yo filly trot

Jezzy has earned her way here and still remains one of the best in this division. However, she fell out of favor with the crowds after her winning streak ceased. This could be a wonderful occasion to wager on her because of that, since her odds will be nowhere near the measly amounts she offered when hot. She has the cleanest gait of ‘em all, actually, so you can count on her trotting her best. 

Race 2, 3yo colt trot

The two supplements, also bound to be the two favorites (Daylon Magician and Dejarmbro) are on the outside and although I am not a stickler for post positions as burdens, I think these two may have a bit of a problem working out a win. Chapter Seven, therefore, may go off higher than we may have estimated after his recent win. I would sat at 2-1 and up he is worth the win wager. Also, if you are going exactas, toss in Spectator K for the second spot; he could get place by default and ignite a big number.  

Race 3, 3yo colt trot

We are again faced with the gait problems of this division, so we are going to look at two scenarios. First, the dead-on favorite and best in this group—when on gait—is Manofmanymissions. He won last year at two and could romp in the elim and the final but not at a price. The backup, if he wins or not, is Whiskey Tax. In the Hambletonian, “Tax” took advantage of every other mishap in the field and got second. He is apt to do it again if “Man” stays straight. If Man breaks, you may be looking at a huge win price with Tax.  

Race 4, 3yo filly trot

We were all over Pantholops when she sizzled at the Meadows for a $30-plus-win price. She had a tough “Futurity” and then got stung with Bold And Fresh finally fired. We cannot let her go here because this is going to be a serious attack and she should be at her best on the track, which is enough to beat these, and her price should be promising. If “Bold” goes the way of all gallopers, beware of Magic Wheel, a local Kadabra product that may do well being tested against better. A big exacta looms with her second to “Pan.”  

Race 6, mare pace

This is not a field to search for an overlay but a qualified longshot chance belongs to Maureen Rocks. She hasn’t been able to shove any of the classier gals over but she is always getting attention from bettors because she is, ultimately, an aggressive mare. I would think the public will dismiss her (she is 8-1 on the morning line [ML]).  

Race 7, 3yo filly pace

Swinging Beauty has the perfect style to finally take advantage of some tired stretch-pacers and may do just that in the weaker of the two soph-filly elims. You cannot knock her in this field, where the ML favorites are all suspect. Her 6-1 ML may be a conservative estimate to her closing odds.  

Race 9, 3yo filly pace

Rocklamation is one of those exacta add-ons, never getting the edge to beat rivals but cashing a lot of check trying. Her 4-1 ML seems generous, as this field has to deal with the return of See You At Peelers, who’s bound to get a lot of attention in the wagering. Still, “Rock” could get her way in one scenario that may play out, so why not take a shot at a legitimate overlay.   

Race 10, 3yo colt pace

Custard The Dragon has not emptied his tank and may be up for a huge mile with the big money and fame on the line. He qualified well after being scratched, which could have been the reason he began to falter after some magnificent miles. He has a lot going for him in the field, a group he can beat on his best day under most circumstances. His ML is 7-1 and we had him both times he won big this season at those kind of odds.   

Race 11, 3yo colt pace

Fashion Delight had a rough sophomore season but has come around well late. He could be peaking now as he rolls into what looks like it could be a monstrous older-pacer campaign. This division has been fickle all year and you have to be crazy to wager on the favorite here to win. Go with Tetrick driving Jim Campbell’s under-rated colt for the upset.  

Official Top-Ten Hopefuls Could Offer A Wagering Bonanza

The Oct. 3 Hambletonian/Breeders Crown Standardbred Poll represents 21 weeks of performances from all harness divisions, according to the opinions of industry. With about three weeks left until the Breeders Crown elim, five of the dozen divisions are do not have members on this list and only one horse is not eligible to a “Crown” race.  

Of the two divisions that have a pair of representatives in the Top Ten, only Manofmanymissions (Yankee Glide) in the soph-colt-trotting league appears to be heading for a Crown elim. The Kadabra-sired Daylon Magician has beaten the best of his mates each time they challenged him. It is reported that the colt will continue to race in the lucrative Ontario-sired-based finals but as of this writing there is no word if his connections will supplement to a Crown elim. 

These horses will be wagered upon heavily in the October elims and due to this high profile will provide bettors with choices that include any number of other performers that will offer better odds. Let’s look at the reasons any of them can be beaten. 

San Pail will have great advantages. One of these edges is Woodbine. Though he has beaten his division foes over the border, he will be very much at home here. But that is not a lock. Arch Madness ruled this division earlier in the season and now he is off the Top-Ten list. Still, he ranks as a threat.  

The foreign contingency will also influence the wagering. Commander Crowe and Rapide Lebel have accepted invitations to the final and the last three winners of the event—Enough Talk, Lucky Jim and Corleone Kosmos—are also available, giving San Pail the challenge of his career. 

We Will See has been an enormous success at four, being rivaled by older pacers and making them look old. But he works hard for his wins and that means any matter of inches during a trip can present a loss from veterans like Foiled Again (number 10 on the list now but earlier a leader). This has been a competitive division throughout a long 2011 campaign, so don’t hand the purse to “See” just yet. As for the Crown champ, indeed, we will see.

See You At Peelers (Bettor’s Delight) is training under medical supervision, being treated with medicine for a manageable heart problem. Whether she gets into the events or not is a decision pending. Don’t be surprised if she returns with verve and a fresh feeling that makes her look best again in a division taken over recently by fillies that were inferior. 

Big Bad John (Western Hanover) and Roll With Joe (Cam’s Card Shark) are, in our opinion, very close to one another in talent. However, they are clearly part of a crop that has not produced a single dominant colt. These two readily beat one another or others of equal talent, making the wagering on this division’s elims bet-worthy.  

If Up The Credit (Western Terror) can win a $1-million race and Custard The Dragon (Dragon Again) can roll better than “Joe,” then the gelding, Alsace Hanover (The Panderosa), has a shot. As well, deal some chances to others not on the Top Ten: Hugadragon (Dragon Again), Powerful Mist (Powerful Toy), Rockabillie (Rocknroll Hanover), Rollitwithharry (Rocknroll Hanover), Shadyshark Hanover (Cam’s Card Shark), Westwardho Hanover (Dragon Again) and even a return visit from Fashion Delight (Bettor’s Delight). It’s open season for winners in the soph-colt pacing elims.  

Meanwhile, only one freshman makes the grade, the unbeaten American Jewel (American Ideal). She is clearly the best of the green gals but can she stay unbeaten through the Crowns? Her split, should there be more than one elim in this division, may be the only that I would consider passing.   

Manofmanymissions (Yankee Glide) trots or he doesn’t trot and no one knows why or when. That has been a problem throughout the soph-colt trotting season. When he is floating there seems to be no other that can take a win from him, however, the speculation every time he takes flight is intense. If “Daylon” gets in, there could be more trouble for “Man” than he can handle. So this Crown challenge, with Daylon or not, is still a wagering probable. 

Dreamfair Eternal is a great pacing mare but she has off nights that behoove the brightest of handicappers. We beat her with Anndrovette and you may do so again at the same luscious price. We nabbed Laughandbehappy most recently and she has beat both of them.  

By and large, this season’s Breeders Crown, with elims on Oct. 21 and Oct. 22, will be presenting some fine wagering opportunities if this Top Ten list is any indication of public opinion. You can bet it all and follow our tweets for last-minute action as we cover all the Crowns live on the Internet in league with TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society. In the meantime, there are more preps and there will be more news, so continue to follow this blog and our two weekly TwinSpires harness blogs.