Sophomore elims present looming longshots

On Saturday, Oct. 22, nine sophomore eliminations for the Breeders Crown finals are the features at Woodbine in Canada (there is also a single elim for the mare pacers). These battles for the berths in the finals’ fields on Oct. 29 have some great upset possibilities.  

In league with our TwinSpires blog this edition of “Countdown” offers selections that have the potential to win elims and boost exotics. Not being privy to closing odds at press time, we are assuming that our suggested contenders are outside the mainstream picks. We estimate 4-1 or up (unless otherwise specified) on all of them but, of course, guarantee nothing. You can judge as you watch and wager on TwimSpires and you can follow us on Twitter and the blog for late updates on both evenings.  

Saturday, Oct. 22

Race 1, 3yo filly trot

Jezzy has earned her way here and still remains one of the best in this division. However, she fell out of favor with the crowds after her winning streak ceased. This could be a wonderful occasion to wager on her because of that, since her odds will be nowhere near the measly amounts she offered when hot. She has the cleanest gait of ‘em all, actually, so you can count on her trotting her best. 

Race 2, 3yo colt trot

The two supplements, also bound to be the two favorites (Daylon Magician and Dejarmbro) are on the outside and although I am not a stickler for post positions as burdens, I think these two may have a bit of a problem working out a win. Chapter Seven, therefore, may go off higher than we may have estimated after his recent win. I would sat at 2-1 and up he is worth the win wager. Also, if you are going exactas, toss in Spectator K for the second spot; he could get place by default and ignite a big number.  

Race 3, 3yo colt trot

We are again faced with the gait problems of this division, so we are going to look at two scenarios. First, the dead-on favorite and best in this group—when on gait—is Manofmanymissions. He won last year at two and could romp in the elim and the final but not at a price. The backup, if he wins or not, is Whiskey Tax. In the Hambletonian, “Tax” took advantage of every other mishap in the field and got second. He is apt to do it again if “Man” stays straight. If Man breaks, you may be looking at a huge win price with Tax.  

Race 4, 3yo filly trot

We were all over Pantholops when she sizzled at the Meadows for a $30-plus-win price. She had a tough “Futurity” and then got stung with Bold And Fresh finally fired. We cannot let her go here because this is going to be a serious attack and she should be at her best on the track, which is enough to beat these, and her price should be promising. If “Bold” goes the way of all gallopers, beware of Magic Wheel, a local Kadabra product that may do well being tested against better. A big exacta looms with her second to “Pan.”  

Race 6, mare pace

This is not a field to search for an overlay but a qualified longshot chance belongs to Maureen Rocks. She hasn’t been able to shove any of the classier gals over but she is always getting attention from bettors because she is, ultimately, an aggressive mare. I would think the public will dismiss her (she is 8-1 on the morning line [ML]).  

Race 7, 3yo filly pace

Swinging Beauty has the perfect style to finally take advantage of some tired stretch-pacers and may do just that in the weaker of the two soph-filly elims. You cannot knock her in this field, where the ML favorites are all suspect. Her 6-1 ML may be a conservative estimate to her closing odds.  

Race 9, 3yo filly pace

Rocklamation is one of those exacta add-ons, never getting the edge to beat rivals but cashing a lot of check trying. Her 4-1 ML seems generous, as this field has to deal with the return of See You At Peelers, who’s bound to get a lot of attention in the wagering. Still, “Rock” could get her way in one scenario that may play out, so why not take a shot at a legitimate overlay.   

Race 10, 3yo colt pace

Custard The Dragon has not emptied his tank and may be up for a huge mile with the big money and fame on the line. He qualified well after being scratched, which could have been the reason he began to falter after some magnificent miles. He has a lot going for him in the field, a group he can beat on his best day under most circumstances. His ML is 7-1 and we had him both times he won big this season at those kind of odds.   

Race 11, 3yo colt pace

Fashion Delight had a rough sophomore season but has come around well late. He could be peaking now as he rolls into what looks like it could be a monstrous older-pacer campaign. This division has been fickle all year and you have to be crazy to wager on the favorite here to win. Go with Tetrick driving Jim Campbell’s under-rated colt for the upset.  

Back to the ‘Futurity’

Unexpected things happen this time of year in harness racing, even when one is not dealing with a crop as quirky as the 2011 soph-colt trotters. You could say that the members of this crop “make it or break it,” since so many have lost by their own missteps.  

On Oct. 2 at The Red Mile comes the Kentucky Futurity, the third jewel in the Trotting Triple Crown, though this year (with no available candidate) it is just one more Breeders Crown prep.  

The gals get to go, too, in the filly version for the sophs. They have also had their Achilles heels showing through the year. All of the action is available on TwinSpires and players of the “Futurity” card get 10X points for the dollars wagered.  

First, let’s look at the boys’ field. Ten of them are entered in The Red Mile event, worth $490,000, contested in two heats, each worth $196,000. One soph-colt trotter must win both heats to be the champ or there will be a $98,000 race-off between the pair of heat winners.  

Fawkes (post 7), Whit (post 8) and Dejarmbro (post 9, a $50,000 supplement) are not eligible to the “Crown.” A win could make connections consider buying into the event but for now that is a moot point.  

Hambo-winner Broad Bahn leaves from post 5 after a disturbing performance in the Canadian Trotting Classic that saw him quit on a dime while attempting the lead and finish 10^th. It was deemed that an irregular heartbeat was the cause. Since then, trainer Noel Daley has qualified the colt in 1:53.2 at the Lexington oval, allowing his appearance in the Futurity.  

Daley told Ken Weingartner of the USTA publicity department that he could not be sure if the problem would arise during the Futurity. He said, “There’s no rhyme or reason or pattern to [the condition]. Hopefully it’s a one-time deal. But obviously there is a concern.” Daley said “Bahn” was bright and healthy in his qualifier.  

Bahn’s main nemesis, Manofmanymissions is back in the thick of the action, a tepid favorite in the morning line over Bahn. Even without a condition like that which Bahn suffers, “Man” is apt to misstep at any time as well as he can smoothly float away from almost any competitors. So, his history tells us he will be an underlay.  

Post 1 is for VC Chocoholic, one of Trond Smedshammer’s two entries (Dejarmbro is the other). This colt has not been able to stay smooth enough to battle the others in the heavy competition. When he is on gait he has shown a lot of talent.  

Opening Night (post 2) was third in the Hambo, as we predicted (the triple was ruined by Whiskey Tax, who is missing in action here). We finally nabbed a win from this guy at 6-1 recently. He is a closer and may be flying at the end if speed or gaits collapse. He will be an overlay.  

Big Rigs (post 4) has not been able to live up to his frosh ability and as a speed horse would have to have some kind of luck to win either of these heats.  

Luckycharm Hanover (post 6) is also and also-trot in the division and needs some bad conduct around him to assist in a win.  

Live Jazz (post 10) hardly belongs here and this post doesn’t lend him much support.  

Under the circumstances, the scenario to hope for in heat one is where Opening Night can stay clear of trouble but get the kind of trouble that is manufactured by a speed duel. Any horse that wins the first heat will be in a better spot to win the second but odds will change drastically for a first-heat winner in the second chapter. Trying to hit this first one with an overlay is the true target. We can count on only one scenario, as prescribed with Opening Night, to catch a price here. It was bad enough when merely breaking was a problem with the best horses, now you have to deal with a heart problem that is just as unpredictable as any trotter that goes on a gallop.   

Futurity femmes

The “Oaks” winner, Bold And Fresh, is back to take on a similar crew and is back looking like the longshot she delivered in the Oaks. Why she would attract major wagers is beyond us, since there are “now” fillies here, each one as promising as the next.  

Pantholops, who we gave you at an astounding $34 win price last out, is a ton of speed that has found its gait and she is going to show some quick foot on the two-turn mile.  

Firstclassprincess is getting better for Trond Smedshammer, who is under-rated for his achievements with filly trotters and who is the only trainer responsible for a Trotting Triple Crown in recent memory.  

Lady Rainbow finally won after flirting with success while battling the best all season. In fact, she almost beat “Bold” in the Oaks with a stunning close that began too late to produce the top purse check.  

Hey Mister is the stealthy type, known to toss in a giant mile here and there—how about here? She has a 50-percent win rate, after all, for trainer Ross Croghan.  

Crys Dream was once the sweetheart of the division but tumbled amid controversy and a wicked turn of form. Still, she is not to be denied.  

The others could provide semi-surprises but all in all one of the five listed above should win the classic in any combination of two heats.

Glamour-boy trotting stars tested once more

The Canadian Trotting Classic at Mohawk on Saturday, Sept. 17, brings together another group of glamour-boy trotters, including the top Hambletonian characters, for another episode of division-title derby.  

Hambo-winner Broad Bahn is in the field, along with his division rival Manofmanymission. The latter has been performing much better than the former recently, being very strict with his stride and toppling all foes when he is on his best behavior.  

Last week Broad Bahn had it tough again, beaten by Daylon Magician, who was nowhere near the Meadowlands on the first Saturday in August. As well, he was the fan favorite and got up to please the crowd while the rest of the field practically lined up straight across the track.  

“Man” won his elim much easier.  

Mystery colts haunt this division lately. Aside from Daylon Magic’s sudden strength, Sim Brown got into the picture to make the final at 70-1. Imperial Court earned a berth here, seemingly racing way above his head.  

And the usual suspects return.  

Whiskey Tax was second in the Hambletonian and just won for us at 6-1. But that win doesn’t shake up this field too much. Dejarmbro seems to be tapering off from his early summer binge (he was not eligible for the Hambo).  

Whatever It Takes, our choice last week, was in the thick of the herd that could not beat “Daylon” last week. He was blocked and locked in, closing strongly. His work is cut out for him here.  

Chapter Seven has never been the same since his Hambo elim. He could not close fast enough after that race, took a rest, and returned with no signs of threatening the top of the class, including Blue Porsche. He was a monster before coming to America and then disappointed everyone by not making the Hambo final.  

Man should be the dead-on choice but considering how he has choked when it counts most, we will have to try to beat a low price. Perhaps Broad Bahn is ready to pull another wire-to-wire, timed-to-the-tee mile? He could do it and at a price like he gave us when we had him in the August classic (6-1). Remember that Man broke in the Hambo but did it in the stretch, giving an indication that Broad Bahn’s well-timed quarters shook him up.  

It’s a good scenario to back if the price is right.   

Check out the archives for results at Hambletonian Society and keep betting at TwinSpires.