Big guns still firing in Canada

The Grand Circuit concludes at Mohawk with three big affairs. There is a pair of Champlain Stakes for frosh pacers of both sexes and a Simcoe Stakes soph-colt pace.

The $252,521 Simcoe Stakes brings together a few stars and a few new faces from the glamour-boy pacer division. All in all there are a dozen going behind the gate.

It may be a giant task for our hero, A Rocknroll Dance, to handle the traffic while leaving from post 12. Although it is the second tier he will be instantly trapped and challenged as the wave of speedballs before him take flight early. As well, Michaels Power will shave fractions to look for a good spot, if not the front, early.

Even if the speed divides itself differently, this looks like a mile that can be won handily from the mid pack with a move as late as midway through the journey. We see it as an event rife for an upset. This is why for the first time since we nabbed Simply Business as a longshot (in last year’s Metro Stakes), we are going to back him here. He is the classiest of the top seven as they line up and Ron Pierce will drive with his usual relentless dismissal of traffic.

 

The first of the two Champlains is for frosh-filly pacers and is worth $226,763. Hot-streaker I Luv The Nitelife is here, from post 11, and will get a load of dough to win.

Parlee Beach has had two disappointing outings with excuses. We feel Bob McIntosh’s student, a daughter of Somebeachsomewhere, is yet to give us a profile of her power. She may do that here and do it without the public support she has received in her last few outings. The public is fickle and with the likes of what she is up against here we feel the public could abandon her just as she peaks to a big price win.

The colt pace is worth $261,829 and presents some Metro Pace co-stars bound to be bet upon heavily. Many people felt Odds On Equuleus may have won the Metro Pace but for a few steps missed in a late charge. Apprentice Hanover comes from tier two here but will still get a lot of support after his buoyant Metro Pace performance.

This leaves us with a suggested outside contender, Rockin Amadeus. No one expected his gutsy move in the Metro Pace, which assisted in the performances of the aforementioned as they went after Captaintreacherous.

Rockin Amadeus’ rocket move from post 7, getting firmly to the lead at 30-1, prompted Vegas Vacation to make a strenuous move to take the lead over. Then, “Amadeus” was trapped behind dead duelers as Johny Rock went nose to nose with “Vegas.”

There was no room to use whatever Amadeus has left in the stretch as the duelers backed up and the big guns closed but we made notice of that trip and under the circumstances in this field, like the chances of a Rockin Amadeus upset.  

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Sophomore elims present looming longshots

On Saturday, Oct. 22, nine sophomore eliminations for the Breeders Crown finals are the features at Woodbine in Canada (there is also a single elim for the mare pacers). These battles for the berths in the finals’ fields on Oct. 29 have some great upset possibilities.  

In league with our TwinSpires blog this edition of “Countdown” offers selections that have the potential to win elims and boost exotics. Not being privy to closing odds at press time, we are assuming that our suggested contenders are outside the mainstream picks. We estimate 4-1 or up (unless otherwise specified) on all of them but, of course, guarantee nothing. You can judge as you watch and wager on TwimSpires and you can follow us on Twitter and the blog for late updates on both evenings.  

Saturday, Oct. 22

Race 1, 3yo filly trot

Jezzy has earned her way here and still remains one of the best in this division. However, she fell out of favor with the crowds after her winning streak ceased. This could be a wonderful occasion to wager on her because of that, since her odds will be nowhere near the measly amounts she offered when hot. She has the cleanest gait of ‘em all, actually, so you can count on her trotting her best. 

Race 2, 3yo colt trot

The two supplements, also bound to be the two favorites (Daylon Magician and Dejarmbro) are on the outside and although I am not a stickler for post positions as burdens, I think these two may have a bit of a problem working out a win. Chapter Seven, therefore, may go off higher than we may have estimated after his recent win. I would sat at 2-1 and up he is worth the win wager. Also, if you are going exactas, toss in Spectator K for the second spot; he could get place by default and ignite a big number.  

Race 3, 3yo colt trot

We are again faced with the gait problems of this division, so we are going to look at two scenarios. First, the dead-on favorite and best in this group—when on gait—is Manofmanymissions. He won last year at two and could romp in the elim and the final but not at a price. The backup, if he wins or not, is Whiskey Tax. In the Hambletonian, “Tax” took advantage of every other mishap in the field and got second. He is apt to do it again if “Man” stays straight. If Man breaks, you may be looking at a huge win price with Tax.  

Race 4, 3yo filly trot

We were all over Pantholops when she sizzled at the Meadows for a $30-plus-win price. She had a tough “Futurity” and then got stung with Bold And Fresh finally fired. We cannot let her go here because this is going to be a serious attack and she should be at her best on the track, which is enough to beat these, and her price should be promising. If “Bold” goes the way of all gallopers, beware of Magic Wheel, a local Kadabra product that may do well being tested against better. A big exacta looms with her second to “Pan.”  

Race 6, mare pace

This is not a field to search for an overlay but a qualified longshot chance belongs to Maureen Rocks. She hasn’t been able to shove any of the classier gals over but she is always getting attention from bettors because she is, ultimately, an aggressive mare. I would think the public will dismiss her (she is 8-1 on the morning line [ML]).  

Race 7, 3yo filly pace

Swinging Beauty has the perfect style to finally take advantage of some tired stretch-pacers and may do just that in the weaker of the two soph-filly elims. You cannot knock her in this field, where the ML favorites are all suspect. Her 6-1 ML may be a conservative estimate to her closing odds.  

Race 9, 3yo filly pace

Rocklamation is one of those exacta add-ons, never getting the edge to beat rivals but cashing a lot of check trying. Her 4-1 ML seems generous, as this field has to deal with the return of See You At Peelers, who’s bound to get a lot of attention in the wagering. Still, “Rock” could get her way in one scenario that may play out, so why not take a shot at a legitimate overlay.   

Race 10, 3yo colt pace

Custard The Dragon has not emptied his tank and may be up for a huge mile with the big money and fame on the line. He qualified well after being scratched, which could have been the reason he began to falter after some magnificent miles. He has a lot going for him in the field, a group he can beat on his best day under most circumstances. His ML is 7-1 and we had him both times he won big this season at those kind of odds.   

Race 11, 3yo colt pace

Fashion Delight had a rough sophomore season but has come around well late. He could be peaking now as he rolls into what looks like it could be a monstrous older-pacer campaign. This division has been fickle all year and you have to be crazy to wager on the favorite here to win. Go with Tetrick driving Jim Campbell’s under-rated colt for the upset.  

Freshmen outsiders hold keys to ‘Crown’ cash

On Friday, Oct. 21, five freshmen eliminations for the Breeders Crown finals are the features at Woodbine in Canada. On Oct. 22, sophomores are the highlights with nine elims. The battles for the berths in the finals’ fields on Oct. 29 are always fierce contests that can produce upsets and stuff bankrolls. 

In league with our TwinSpires blog this edition of “Countdown” offers selections that have the potential to win elims and boost exotics. Not being privy to closing odds at press time, we are assuming that our suggested contenders are outside the mainstream picks. We estimate 4-1 or up on all of them but, of course, guarantee nothing. You can judge as you watch and wager on TwinSpires and you can follow us on Twitter and the blog for late updates on both evenings. 

Friday, Oct. 21

Race 1, 2yo colt trot

Classic Conway, 15-1 on the morning line (ML), should offer anything near that for a wager. He has the style and the current form to topple the big-noise horse From Above. That one also brought us pre-elim pay with two great wins, just as “Conway” scored last time. These two wreak of exacta magic.

Race 2, 2yo colt trot

Appomattox is a Frank Antonacci-trained colt that is listed on the ML at 20-1 with Tetrick driving. This is not such a sterling group that long odds are necessary for Mr. Antonacci’s steed, who I am sure is poised to stay afloat and surprise. Definitely an exacta member as well as a win bet.

 
Race 3, 2yo filly trot

In the single elim for this division (two gals not here show up for final), Personal Style is a legitimate outsider and candidate to beat 4-5 ML choice Check Me Out. At 8-1 on the ML with Ron Pierce steering, I cannot see how Richard Norman’s filly will be out of the mix sans a misstep.  

Race 4, 2yo colt pace

Hurrikane Kingcole was a darling for bettors a few back. Once he got into trouble they dropped him like a dead dictator’s body. But the colt has been priming for this event since some minor problems. This elim is the time to support him. His ML of 10-1 may be a conservative estimate of his post-time odds, since everyone and his uncle will back A Rocknroll Dance.  

Race 6, 2yo colt pace

Our shortest ML price at 9-2 is Machapelo. He may not be as long a shot as most we recommend watching on Friday but we think he has much potential and can live up to the speedy style of his sire. In other words, he is blossoming and can perform a late-season primer to a productive sophomore season.

Check in for Saturday's picks soon.

Check out the season's news for eligibles at http://www.hambletonian.org/news.html