Breeders Crown finals, 2014 continued

The Breeders Crown finals analysis for Friday (Nov. 21) and Saturday (Nov. 22) continue from the TwinSpires harnessblog on the main site.

There will be only one more edition of this blog for 2014, which will be an epilogue essay addressing the the season. It is scheduled for the week following the finals.

This blog looks at the older events for both sexes on both gaits.

Friday, Nov. 21

Mares Trot ($250,000)

Bee A Magician will headline the wagering here, no doubt, but she will have to work for this victory. Classic Martine has been a problem for her, especially at the Meadowlands, and Ma Chere Hall goes for new connections (she chased “Bee” a lot at three and picked up some good checks). D’Orsay, of course, is still the highest priced winner we have supported this season, winning over the summer to pay $100 or so, and she is always available to topple a field at a price.

And then there’s Mistery Woman, who is getting better with age and recently ignored by the public when winning. Last week’s 15-1 win by Handover Belle depended upon Bee’s outland journey, while “Mistery” went off a notch less at 14-1. Mistery had the most impressive trip and should once again go off higher than she deserves. Bee will pick up the place, most likely getting a far better trip.

Saturday, Nov. 22

Mares Pace ($281,250)

Let’s allow the public to believe Anndrovette can win every Breeders Crown Mares Pace in which she is entered and take the odds down too far so we can rally with a price in this here-we-go-again group that always delivers deep challenged miles. Two supplements, Yagonnakissmeornot and Venus Delight, have more to lose than the regulars but don’t expect the others to make that an edge. If the two or three that want the front get too frisky with the fractions, the main closer, Rocklamation, will eat up the stretch with her one-dimensional gait.

However, this could wind up a strategic win with a last-mare-standing finish. Multi-talented Somwherovrarainbow will be in a good spot to avoid duels and dig in late. As well, Camille is on the rail and may be gifted more room than usual (she has disappointed a few times as a choice so perhaps she would like to be on the board as an outsider).

Open Pace ($400,000)

There are only seven stalwart pacers here, yet there could be a good price on Sweet Lou, considering he has not been scoring ones of late. He is still the best here and could come right back to his seasonal shape and eat up all four quarters. Some of these horses have loyal fans, so expect the win pool to be spread out. Foiled Again, Clear Vision, Thinking Out Loud and State Treasurer all have followers that will play for some kind of glory, as opposed to profit.

Open Trot ($500,000)

Four veteran trotters show up due to byes, so that means Commander Crowe, Creatine, Intimidate and Market Share had a week off to prepare for this heavy mile; heavy because the group is fast and experienced and each is full of his or herself. The she is Maven, who won the elim impressively against the males last week, going for the first time in the Takter barn. We were second last week with Your So Vain and that race brings us to this race regardless of the freshened foursome. One of that four, of course, is the foreign Commander Crowe. How his style affects the mile remains to be seen but considering the mixture of early-and-late speed here, Your So Vain is in the perfect spot and could be the perfect price for a score (which his trainer, Ake Svanstedt, would love to happen since his prize trotter, Sebastian K—who has beaten “Crowe” in Europe—is not in this event).


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site, have brought bettors exclusive coverage through 2014. Thank you for making our decisions a part of your wagering strategy.

Thirteen eliminations, supplements and more on first of two Meadowlands weekends

Here is some Breeders Crown news as we enter elimination weekend at the Meadowlands.

Just as we predicted, Always B Miki connections bought in as a supplement to take on the glamour-boy pacers in the Breeders Crown. The cost to supplement to the colt pace is $62,500. The Indiana-bred is trained by Joe Holloway. The colt won $778,982 this season, beating some of the top glamour boys. He is coming off a win in the Monument Circle, also as we predicted.

There were more supplements. Another we predicted is soph-filly pacer Color's A Virgin. She is also an Indiana-bred and you may remember she was our pick when she won the Jugette and then continued to win at Hoosier.

Two more soph-filly pacers, Sayitall BB and Weeper, and a pair of mare pacers, Yagonnakissmeornot and Venus Delight, were also supported by their owners with big cash to join the fields.
Yagonnakissmeornot is a $31,250 supplemental entry to the $281,250 Crown Mare Pace, which goes straight to a final next week. Venus Delight also gets to race in that final.  

Matron winner Weeper, trained by Kelly O’Donnell, and Sayitall BB from the Burke Racing Stable are soph-filly pacers whose connections also bought in to the event for them. Half of all supplemental fees are added to respective purses. The soph-colt pace and filly purses will be $531,250 and $593,750, respectively. 

TwinSpires will be live at the Meadowlands for the events. Check the TwinSpires harness blog by clicking here and get a jump on analyzing the elims.

The Breeders Crown Countdown continues through the weekend of the finals thanks to TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society.

Cartoons by Thom Pye

  

Autumn’s amazing cast of ‘Crown’ characters in full battle regalia for a month

Once again we launch The Breeders Crown Countdown, the official Hambletonian Society and TwinSpires bettors’ blog for stakes leading to the sport’s biggest nights of racing, the Breeders Crown elims and finals. This year marks the return of the series to Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs. 

 

All 12 event finals will be to be raced Saturday, Oct. 19, 2013. Eliminations for three-year-old-and-up events, as well as the two-year-old colt pace, if necessary will be raced Saturday, Oct.12, 2013. Eliminations for all other two-year-old events, if necessary go on Friday, Oct. 11, 2013. 

 

The estimated purses this years are:

Open Trot: $600,000

Mare Trot: $250,000

Open Pace: $500,000

Mare Pace: $300,000

2-year-olds: $600,000

3-year-olds: $500,000

 

This blog will offer valuable suggestions for wagering on all Breeders Crown (BC) eligibles competing in major events around North America (and sometimes Europe) leading to the elimination weekend. Other races involving possible participants (supplements, etcetera) are covered in the weekly TwinSpires harness blog. 

 

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the big nights at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get an account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets. 

 

Top dogs 

 

Every horse from this season that has a spot in the top-10 earning list so far is a BC eligible. However, only six of the 12 divisions are represented on that list. The stakes with top earners—even beyond the top-10 list—will be a focus of this blog and the total of events concerning eligibles will be shared with the TwinSpires harness blog. 

 

The top-10 list, in order of earnings as of this post: 

 

Captaintreacherous

Clearly one of the greatest pacers of all time, we have endorsed him to the benefit of bettors since the beginning of his super sophomore season. 

 

Bee A Magician

We found this great filly trotter at two, when she paid the most and began her domination of the frosh division. She has come on at three to beat everything that moves. 

 

Royalty For Life

The Hambletonian winner was one of our top picks in the April issue of Hoof Beats. Though he has not paid well enough to formally endorse at three, he is a major factor in his division. 

 

I Luv The Nitelife

We continually try to beat this beautiful soph filly and have been less than successful. Once we began to key her in exotics we saw profits. She is a wickedly fast filly that can already be called her division’s top choice in the big series.

 

Foiled Again

A stalwart older pacer who became the biggest earner of all time, he continues to challenge veterans and new-to-the-division four-year-olds with tenacity. He is always a threat. 

 

Corky

One of Jimmy Takter’s stream of trotters that shows enough talent to make this list without having won uber-major [sic] events. He has a lot to do to beat the likes of Royalty For Life and even Smilin Eli (who shows up as the 13^th highest earner this year) but he may improve greatly as the temperatures tighten. 

 

Pet Rock

We nabbed him at three, seeing a whole lot of talent and then he exploded at four and has been a patch of wildfire in every older pacing event. 

 

Vegas Vacation

He made a lot of money so far but on the tail of Captaintreacherous. He is fast but not fast enough, he is aggressive but does not seem to overcome adversity like his main foe. 

 

Anndrovette

We caught his older pacing gal every time the public backed off on her and cashed well. She still seeks the proper respect she should have for racing with force and ferocity.

 

Sunfire Blue Chip

Like the other glamour-boys pacers, this mid-season star has managed to do his best when Captaintreacherous is resting from one of his trounces of horses even better than this one. We don’t have a lot of confidence he will stay on this list for long.  

Other big earners, like Sevruga (older trotter), Feeling You (mare pacer) and some already deserving freshmen, will be covered weekly on the partnering blogs. 

Battlefield Breeders Crown: The Older Divisions

The Breeders Crown series at Woodbine Racetrack on Oct. 27 includes four-year-olds and up from both sexes and gaits: The Mare Trot, the Open Trot (males), the Open Mare Pace and the Open Pace (one mare against males).

Read all of the archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Along with our TwinSpires blog, here is an analysis for those events, concentrating on our suggested contenders that we feel are worthy overlays or key winners due to their overwhelming chances of winning the event.

The valued contenders

The Open Mare Trot launches the series Saturday. This group includes Autumn Escapade, a friend of our betting bankroll since she began her campaign as a mare. Canada has been a healthy venue for her over the years. This season she spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania, with top mares at Pocono, and only won a single race.

But her Breeders Crown elim was impressive, some proof that she is returning to familiar territory where she excelled. She got a great spot early in that race and then became buried by three-quarters. She managed to shake free from foes on both sides and use a strong brush to get second while still charging.

A threat to her and the favorites will be Bax Of Life. She is a must for exotics. Her elim was powerful. She was extra game leaving from post 10 and held on with grace to get fourth after a long journey.

The Open Trot is a small field, which includes overseas champion Commander Crowe but presents a major hero of the division this year, Chapter Seven.

A good reason why Chapter Seven has become the unlikely leader of this group is that he is only a four-year-old. Maturing at the end of a sophomore season that presented five losses in 10 starts against a particularly talented crop (including Daylon Magician and Mister Herbie, also in this field), he came back to defeat older and more experienced steeds at four with regularity.

Beating him in this short field will be a chore, though the invader offers more hope than value. Commander Crowe has literally been all over the map in Europe and has made over a $1.5 million in 2012.

All you can hope for to dig up an upset has to do with Hot Shot Blue Chip. He is the only one here that has defied the others with speed and success, not counting “Crowe.” I wouldn’t expect much from such an upset, as the size of this field give the edge to Chapter Seven but if we need to go out on a limb for a price, Hot Shot Blue Chip gets our support.

The Open Mare Pace offers the talents of a mare that we began to support mid season who has done so well her connections bring her into this fray via supplement money, which is always an investment in faith. She is Rebeka Bayama and last week she won in a “Crown” sideshow event for her division, scorching the oval in 1:48.4.  

Rebeka Bayama is 3-1 on the morning line but will still offer some value, as Drop The Ball should get the bettors’ bulk of win money and last year’s winner, Anndrovette, is bound to pick up heavy support, especially being on the inside of the two mentioned.  

Closing the event for 2012 is the charge of the heavy brigade, so to speak, the stalwart elder pacing males in the Open Pace. Only this year a brave mare takes on the boys. She is Put On A Show. She is up against tons of iron, so to speak, and although she wants to pace into history by doing what no mare has done before in this series, we don’t feel she is up to the task.

 

Nor do we see a repeat in last year’s Bettor Sweet victory. Certainly the seven-year-old will be offering far less in odds than last season when he won as an outsider. That alone turns us off. However, we like the horse that last beat him, Golden Receiver. 

Though Golden Receiver defeated Bettor Sweet at Pocono Downs and then lost to him at The Red Mile and in a Woodbine Open prep for this event, this pacer has remarkable resilience and has come back strong throughout the season after displaying disappointing miles. He will certainly be a decent price among this group, which includes mega-money-maker Foiled Again and Hypnotic Blue Chip, who came back from retirement to swarm through fields of older pacers. 

The older divisions always make for challenging handicapping, as throughout the stakes season there is rarely a dominating figure. Aside from Chapter Seven in the Open Trot, no other horse or mare on either gait has been as reliable as his or her odds indicated.

 

This is a good reason for our choices, which as usual stand out from the mainstream-handicapping crowd. Any one can make a good case for most of these entries, which opens the realm of possibilities for those of us seeking the true overlay. The cases we are making become more acceptable under the circumstances.

Post time for the Breeders Crown finals on Saturday, Oct. 27 will be a special early post of 6:30 p.m. [EDT]. The finals will be followed live on TwinSpires @FrankCotolo and @RayCotolo and @TwinSpires.

Read all of the archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Sophomores scuffle, mares’ malaise

Breeders Crown action continues with eliminations for the three-year-old colt and filly pacers, three-year-old colt trotters and the open mare trotters.  

Two eliminations will be contested for the three-year-old filly pacers.  

The first looks to be a battle between American Jewel and Economy Terror, though we take a look at their underdog rivals.  

Ramalama has shown significant improvement within the last few months. She raced very well on the New York Sires Stakes circuit, showing she was capable of challenging these fillies at Lexington during the Grand Circuit meeting.  

The other value play in here is Bettor B Lucky. She has been on a slight layoff, skipping The Red Mile and qualifying at Freehold. She is fresher than these other fillies and could put on quite a show in this event.  

The second elimination favorite, Romantic Moment, drew the far outside and gives rivals to her inside a decent shot.  

We will take Handsoffmycookie. She has not raced against the top fillies since last year’s Breeders Crown but has gotten the luck of fast miles and tough rivalries in this division to tire some of the top filly foes. She should be very sharp returning to top company this week.  

The three-year-old colt trotters will also contest two eliminations.  

Little Brown Fox headlines the first group and is the only horse in this field to have recently raced with the top trotters. Our mind, on the other hand, is concentrated upon Prestidigitator.  

The Kadabra son, who has scored for us this year and was our unsuccessful Hambletonian choice, has a hometown advantage in Toronto, as he is a regular on this circuit. He draws into the weaker of two elims and should be a great value wager against Little Brown Fox, who is arguably as good as the top dog, Market Choice, on any given day. 

Market Share dominates the second elimination for the glamour-boy trotters. If you are ready to bet against Market Share, calm down. He’ll likely romp in the elim at a poor price (even low-priced overlays can be over bet). He could be vulnerable in the final based on the other 14 trotters performances this week.  

The final group of sophomore eliminations will feature three-year-old colt pacers.  

Thinking Out Loud and Bettor’s Edge will likely be heavy betting interests in the first elim. We went to their outside and took Hillbilly Hanover to win this elimination.  

He produced a stunning effort in the Tattersalls Pace, racing first over into the far turn and nearly passing Sweet Lou at the wire. This colt has been improving recently and is maturing late in the season, which is a key sign to look for in a Breeders Crown upset.  

The second chapter attracts top names—A Rocknroll Dance, Michaels Power and Sweet Lou among them. Sweet Lou has shown improvement but remains suspect to coming up short, Michaels Power, a supplement, has always been vulnerable among his piers and A Rocknroll Dance is recovering from throat surgery. 

Mel Mara looks to be the “now” horse and the value wager. Coming off a victory versus Michaels Power, Mel Mara came back onto the stakes scene with a victory in the Bluegrass Stakes at The Red Mile. He returned a week later and finished a strong fourth in the Tattersalls Pace. The public may ignore him this week because of the brand names racing around him but he should provide tough competition against the top pacers.

The final elim scheduled for Saturday is for the Open Mare Trot field.

Two horses caught our eye in this wide-open division, Tamla Celeber S and Beatgoeson Hanover.

Tamla Celeber S had two strong starts in America, one in the Pride In Progress and the other in the Allerage. Though she was disappointing in the Allerage, she ships up north this week and should may use herself up early like she did in those two miles, resulting in a powerful mile.

Beatgoeson Hanover is coming off of a great race in the Allerage. She was a closing third, behind Frenchfriesnvinegar. She draws the rail and will likely be in the mix early and should provide value in this contest.

See the TwinSpires blog for more Breeders Crown action and news and contacts for next week’s single-night finals program.

Northern lights: best of all divisions aim for Woodbine

The time has come for the connections of horses in all divisions to decide about racing in the Breeders Crown series Woodbine Racetrack. This means, aside from horses already eligible, decisions need to be made on foreign invitees and supplemental entries. 

The race program for the finals is Saturday, Oct. 27 in Toronto, Canada.  

There are no supplements for two-year-olds, so only eligibles will race. Meanwhile, all sophomores wanting to take part will cost their connections $62,500. The same price is listed for the Open Pace, while the Open Trot additions will cost $75,000, the Mare Pace fee is $37,500 and the Mare Trot fee is $31,250.  

Horses eligible to the Breeders Crown events have to officially enter by 10:30 a.m., Tuesday, Oct. 16.  

Eliminations for all two-year-olds, if needed, are on the Friday, Oct. 19program, while the three-year-old and open eliminations, if needed, are on the Saturday, Oct. 20 program, each with a post time of 7:30 p.m. 

The connections of elim winners get to choose their post position for the finals.

Post time for the Breeders Crown finals on Saturday, Oct. 27 will be a special early post of 6:30 p.m. [EDT]. The finals will be followed live on TwinSpires @FrankCotolo and @RayCotolo and @TwinSpires.

Who’s who?

It is still up in the air if Michael’s Power will supplement to the big event, the soph-colt pace. The decision must be made this weekend and the money, $62,500, must be delivered. 

Driver Scott Zeron has said, “Everyone wants to know what is next for Michael’s Power [after his Flamboro race on Oct. 13].”  

Perhaps other news in the division will inspire Michael’s Power’s connections? 

For instance, Bolt The Duer won’t be in the field. His connections have decided the colt isn’t up to it and are quoted as saying he “just wasn’t right.”  

As well, the fate of A Rocknroll Dance in the glamour-boy pacing “Crown” division is pending. A Rocknroll Dance will be going for throat surgery, according to sources, and may not be ready for the Crown cavalcade. Recently, A Rocknroll Dance has been disappointing, moreso than his post-position excuses can explain. The surgery indicates what many suspected, that something was off since he last made his usual charge in a stakes event.  

Put On A Show heads for Toronto off of an Oct. 9 race that broke the Pocono Downs track record for older pacing mares when she won in 1:49. The Chris Ryder-trained mare is wound tight for the Crown, having won 11 of 20 races this season with lifetime earnings of over $2.3 million.  

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Sophomores end September at Red Mile

The first weekend of Grand Circuit action at The Red Mile ends as does September, 2012, on the 30^th. More Bluegrass stakes adorn the program. 

Soph-filly trotters launch the card, with $69,700 on the line for a field of six. All but one have scored a single time and two come from the “Jug” meet with wins. 

Bluff and Canadian Justice want to maintain their winning streaks and do so against probable choice On The Bright Side. If you can get a satisfactory price on Bluff, take her to win again. 

Seven gals go in episode two ($70,700), all out to beat Win Missy B. Out of the 3 hole, Personal Style may be the best value.  

Another $70,700 split for the gals brings Check Me Out to go against six others that have had no luck beating her if she doesn’t break. So watch this one, which should be a modest prep for the Breeders Crown appearance of Check Me Out. 

Glamour-boy trotters have their own trio of Bluegrass events on the program.  

In the $75,000 first round, it is about time for Guccio to step up and win. He may also be the value bet here, since Muscolo comes from a victory at Freehold and Magic Tonight will not be a longshot any longer. 

For $76,000 six boys have to deal with Little Brown Fox, arguably the best here. However, he will get a lot of action and could be challenged by Gym Tan Laundry. That one had a very bad race last out in the trot classic but cannot be dismissed here off of that effort, which could be an anomaly.  

In the colt nightcap, worth $76,000, Big Chocolate may deserve favorite status but we have to look at Beer Summit, who has been far more competitive with the first-stringers in this division than the rest here. And he could bring a decent upset price. 

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

 

‘Jug’ week co-features loom boldly

Some of the season’s top trotters and pacers from divisions other than the two featured in the Jugette and Little Brown Jug battle for cash and prestige during the Delaware, Ohio meet’s biggest days of racing, Wednesday and Thursday, Sept. 19 and Sept. 20. 

Earlier in the Jugette program on Sept. 19, soph-filly trotters go in two $51,000 divisions of the Buckette. The first division has eight relatively unknown division members, with a soft early choice, Oasis Dream.  

We offer a shot with Miss Fidget, Ed Lohmeyer’s filly driven here by John Campbell. The filly’s last race was marred by a break but coming off of five races at five different tracks she was sent off in a classy state-bred at Yonkers at 7-2. We feel she will be dismissed by bettors while still deserving a shot in a field not swarming with talent, to say the least.  

In Buckette two, the magnificent Maven may very well snap a track record with Yannick Gingras pumping her from start to finish. She appears to out-class this field by a mile, making it difficult to play against her to win. As a key, you may want to hook her up with Miss Chip K, who danced with the femme stars in the filly Zweig and was a close third. 

On Sept. 20, soph-colt trotters charge in The Old Oaken Bucket. There are only eight colts here and none of them have seen their names on the marquee during main events for the division. So, the $125,800 purse should be making them and their connections drool. 

The public choice will be Fusion Man, coming off of a major Kentucky state-bred final, his second win in a row at The Red Mile. Jeff Smith’s colt has done little wrong in eight races this season, though he has not taken on the best of the breed. 

Frost Bites K, however, has been in the thick of the top colts this season and though he failed to get a berth in the Hambletonian he has readily taken on that group. His most recent win is at the Meadows where he was overlooked at 14-1. Post 7 in a field of eight could turn some people off, which is great for the win price.  

Older trotting mares take the forefront in the $153,000 Ms Versatility Final. This thin division still has some kick to it, but at this point in the season, which ones are the outsiders? 

Cedar Dove will probably indulge in driver Ron Pierce’s urging to get to the top early but a lot of people will be concerned considering the mare’s last two races. She quit in both, although last week she did have an excuse. Beatgoeson Hanover was awesome at Vernon, passing Cedar Dove. However, pulling off that trip on this oval is not so easy. As well, Action-Broadway was also in that mix, hanging badly to finish fifth.  

The dangerous speed is Frenchfysnvinegar. Should she out-gun Cedar Dove to the top or be quick enough from post 7 to get a spot second, she will make a three-quarters move that will be filled with trot from saving ground. That is the scenario to follow considering most bettors will dismiss this speedy seven-year-old. 

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

 

Cartoon by Thom Pye

 

Kentucky conflicts at Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs presents a few events with Breeders Crown hopefuls in freshmen divisions. Filly pacers highlight the Kentucky Stallion Management stakes, while colts go in splits of The Elevation, all on the Sept. 15 program. 

The Elevation’s first division hosts six with a purse of $89,600.  

From the 6 hole, He Rocks The Moon is from the red-hot Tony Alegna barn and one of three sired by Rocknroll Hanover. He has won two of six starts in his first season of pacing and should take to the Indiana mile well after taking a mark of 1:53 on a five-eighths track.  

The second Elevation field features seven and is worth $90,600.  

Raise The Gin was sixth in an Indiana Sires Stakes Final here last week but can’t be faulted for that. The seven-for-10 winner by Always A Virgin has enough speed to take a shot at dominating the other six here if he leaves with the kind of power his sire often demonstrated.  

The filly pacers go first in the $118500 Kentuckiana Stallion Management stake, division one. 

The Somebeachsomewhere-daughter from post 1, Exotic Beach, is still a maiden but there is no reason she cannot change that status in this event. She is worth the shot at a price. Her qualifier mark will turn bettors off, no doubt, and the obvious Always About Katey should get favorite status with five of six wins on her side. 

The second Kentuckiana split offers $117,250, with seven on the gate. 

Nikki Beach, another Somebeachsomewhere product, has been racing with a lot better and should be among the top three on the board, hopefully the second or third behind Ohmybelle and Donna Lee.    

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

 

Big guns still firing in Canada

The Grand Circuit concludes at Mohawk with three big affairs. There is a pair of Champlain Stakes for frosh pacers of both sexes and a Simcoe Stakes soph-colt pace.

The $252,521 Simcoe Stakes brings together a few stars and a few new faces from the glamour-boy pacer division. All in all there are a dozen going behind the gate.

It may be a giant task for our hero, A Rocknroll Dance, to handle the traffic while leaving from post 12. Although it is the second tier he will be instantly trapped and challenged as the wave of speedballs before him take flight early. As well, Michaels Power will shave fractions to look for a good spot, if not the front, early.

Even if the speed divides itself differently, this looks like a mile that can be won handily from the mid pack with a move as late as midway through the journey. We see it as an event rife for an upset. This is why for the first time since we nabbed Simply Business as a longshot (in last year’s Metro Stakes), we are going to back him here. He is the classiest of the top seven as they line up and Ron Pierce will drive with his usual relentless dismissal of traffic.

 

The first of the two Champlains is for frosh-filly pacers and is worth $226,763. Hot-streaker I Luv The Nitelife is here, from post 11, and will get a load of dough to win.

Parlee Beach has had two disappointing outings with excuses. We feel Bob McIntosh’s student, a daughter of Somebeachsomewhere, is yet to give us a profile of her power. She may do that here and do it without the public support she has received in her last few outings. The public is fickle and with the likes of what she is up against here we feel the public could abandon her just as she peaks to a big price win.

The colt pace is worth $261,829 and presents some Metro Pace co-stars bound to be bet upon heavily. Many people felt Odds On Equuleus may have won the Metro Pace but for a few steps missed in a late charge. Apprentice Hanover comes from tier two here but will still get a lot of support after his buoyant Metro Pace performance.

This leaves us with a suggested outside contender, Rockin Amadeus. No one expected his gutsy move in the Metro Pace, which assisted in the performances of the aforementioned as they went after Captaintreacherous.

Rockin Amadeus’ rocket move from post 7, getting firmly to the lead at 30-1, prompted Vegas Vacation to make a strenuous move to take the lead over. Then, “Amadeus” was trapped behind dead duelers as Johny Rock went nose to nose with “Vegas.”

There was no room to use whatever Amadeus has left in the stretch as the duelers backed up and the big guns closed but we made notice of that trip and under the circumstances in this field, like the chances of a Rockin Amadeus upset.  

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Cane Pace looming; Grand Circuit at Mohawk features primary players

The Big ‘Dance’ Rocks The Cane

Click here for Cane Pace essay, analysis ...

On Friday, Aug. 31, frosh-colt trotters battle for big money in the Champlain Stakes at Mohawk, part of the big Grand Circuit weekend (see TwinSpires blog for analysis of other major events). 

The first split is worth $140,914, the kind of purse most of these youngsters hope to see again as their careers ensue.  

Jim Oscarsson’s Aperfectyankee, who we gave you in the Peter Haughton and who won to become the 2013 Hambletonian future-book choice, is here and looking terrific; too good, in fact, to do anything but key in an exacta. There could be a decent return using Broadway Prince second. This developing youngster has good reason to be in this group and may be on his way to being a nemesis to the top choice into their soph seasons.  

The next split for the same division is worth $138,915 and Cool Victory could be the upset contender at a price. Although he has some breaking issues, he has done well despite the jumps and is well bred enough to improve once those young quirks are handled.  

Sept. 1 at Mohawk delivers some of our glamour-boy trotting pals from the Hambletonian Trail (cartoon by Thom Pye).  

The single split is worth $246,521 and we are all over Little Brown Fox.  

Hometown favorite Knows Nothing, who we beat last week with Presdigitator, also in this field, will get plenty of support, leaving “Fox” with a fair price. His loss to Googoo Gaagaa and Market Share was mainly a loss to the latter, who got a better trip while Fox cut the fractions.  

“Gaagaa” is not here and we feel Fox is much better than Knows Nothing on an even keel, so we should take advantage of the home-fans’ bias. 

At Pocono on Sept. 1 Pennsylvania Sires Stakes finals are worth $200,000. 

For top filly trotter Check Me Out, the soph-filly trot conclusion should be an afterthought. A pass is our choice. 

Soph-filly pacers bring us back to Economy Terror for a comeback off of a dull effort last week. She should be raring to go against this tepid group. 

More Hambo alumni from this season adorn the soph-colt trot final. My Mvp could continue to show great form now that his great form is winning him races. Frost Bites K may have some trouble from post 8 but demands attention in exotics. 

Finally, the soph-colt pace is a hometown showcase for Sweet Lou. He is the champ of the state-bred’s division and doesn’t have much to go up against here for some easy money—for him, that is, because bettors will be offered nothing.
 

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.