Thirteen eliminations, supplements and more on first of two Meadowlands weekends

Here is some Breeders Crown news as we enter elimination weekend at the Meadowlands.

Just as we predicted, Always B Miki connections bought in as a supplement to take on the glamour-boy pacers in the Breeders Crown. The cost to supplement to the colt pace is $62,500. The Indiana-bred is trained by Joe Holloway. The colt won $778,982 this season, beating some of the top glamour boys. He is coming off a win in the Monument Circle, also as we predicted.

There were more supplements. Another we predicted is soph-filly pacer Color's A Virgin. She is also an Indiana-bred and you may remember she was our pick when she won the Jugette and then continued to win at Hoosier.

Two more soph-filly pacers, Sayitall BB and Weeper, and a pair of mare pacers, Yagonnakissmeornot and Venus Delight, were also supported by their owners with big cash to join the fields.
Yagonnakissmeornot is a $31,250 supplemental entry to the $281,250 Crown Mare Pace, which goes straight to a final next week. Venus Delight also gets to race in that final.  

Matron winner Weeper, trained by Kelly O’Donnell, and Sayitall BB from the Burke Racing Stable are soph-filly pacers whose connections also bought in to the event for them. Half of all supplemental fees are added to respective purses. The soph-colt pace and filly purses will be $531,250 and $593,750, respectively. 

TwinSpires will be live at the Meadowlands for the events. Check the TwinSpires harness blog by clicking here and get a jump on analyzing the elims.

The Breeders Crown Countdown continues through the weekend of the finals thanks to TwinSpires and the Hambletonian Society.

Cartoons by Thom Pye

  

Big guns still firing in Canada

The Grand Circuit concludes at Mohawk with three big affairs. There is a pair of Champlain Stakes for frosh pacers of both sexes and a Simcoe Stakes soph-colt pace.

The $252,521 Simcoe Stakes brings together a few stars and a few new faces from the glamour-boy pacer division. All in all there are a dozen going behind the gate.

It may be a giant task for our hero, A Rocknroll Dance, to handle the traffic while leaving from post 12. Although it is the second tier he will be instantly trapped and challenged as the wave of speedballs before him take flight early. As well, Michaels Power will shave fractions to look for a good spot, if not the front, early.

Even if the speed divides itself differently, this looks like a mile that can be won handily from the mid pack with a move as late as midway through the journey. We see it as an event rife for an upset. This is why for the first time since we nabbed Simply Business as a longshot (in last year’s Metro Stakes), we are going to back him here. He is the classiest of the top seven as they line up and Ron Pierce will drive with his usual relentless dismissal of traffic.

 

The first of the two Champlains is for frosh-filly pacers and is worth $226,763. Hot-streaker I Luv The Nitelife is here, from post 11, and will get a load of dough to win.

Parlee Beach has had two disappointing outings with excuses. We feel Bob McIntosh’s student, a daughter of Somebeachsomewhere, is yet to give us a profile of her power. She may do that here and do it without the public support she has received in her last few outings. The public is fickle and with the likes of what she is up against here we feel the public could abandon her just as she peaks to a big price win.

The colt pace is worth $261,829 and presents some Metro Pace co-stars bound to be bet upon heavily. Many people felt Odds On Equuleus may have won the Metro Pace but for a few steps missed in a late charge. Apprentice Hanover comes from tier two here but will still get a lot of support after his buoyant Metro Pace performance.

This leaves us with a suggested outside contender, Rockin Amadeus. No one expected his gutsy move in the Metro Pace, which assisted in the performances of the aforementioned as they went after Captaintreacherous.

Rockin Amadeus’ rocket move from post 7, getting firmly to the lead at 30-1, prompted Vegas Vacation to make a strenuous move to take the lead over. Then, “Amadeus” was trapped behind dead duelers as Johny Rock went nose to nose with “Vegas.”

There was no room to use whatever Amadeus has left in the stretch as the duelers backed up and the big guns closed but we made notice of that trip and under the circumstances in this field, like the chances of a Rockin Amadeus upset.  

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Sophomore elims present looming longshots

On Saturday, Oct. 22, nine sophomore eliminations for the Breeders Crown finals are the features at Woodbine in Canada (there is also a single elim for the mare pacers). These battles for the berths in the finals’ fields on Oct. 29 have some great upset possibilities.  

In league with our TwinSpires blog this edition of “Countdown” offers selections that have the potential to win elims and boost exotics. Not being privy to closing odds at press time, we are assuming that our suggested contenders are outside the mainstream picks. We estimate 4-1 or up (unless otherwise specified) on all of them but, of course, guarantee nothing. You can judge as you watch and wager on TwimSpires and you can follow us on Twitter and the blog for late updates on both evenings.  

Saturday, Oct. 22

Race 1, 3yo filly trot

Jezzy has earned her way here and still remains one of the best in this division. However, she fell out of favor with the crowds after her winning streak ceased. This could be a wonderful occasion to wager on her because of that, since her odds will be nowhere near the measly amounts she offered when hot. She has the cleanest gait of ‘em all, actually, so you can count on her trotting her best. 

Race 2, 3yo colt trot

The two supplements, also bound to be the two favorites (Daylon Magician and Dejarmbro) are on the outside and although I am not a stickler for post positions as burdens, I think these two may have a bit of a problem working out a win. Chapter Seven, therefore, may go off higher than we may have estimated after his recent win. I would sat at 2-1 and up he is worth the win wager. Also, if you are going exactas, toss in Spectator K for the second spot; he could get place by default and ignite a big number.  

Race 3, 3yo colt trot

We are again faced with the gait problems of this division, so we are going to look at two scenarios. First, the dead-on favorite and best in this group—when on gait—is Manofmanymissions. He won last year at two and could romp in the elim and the final but not at a price. The backup, if he wins or not, is Whiskey Tax. In the Hambletonian, “Tax” took advantage of every other mishap in the field and got second. He is apt to do it again if “Man” stays straight. If Man breaks, you may be looking at a huge win price with Tax.  

Race 4, 3yo filly trot

We were all over Pantholops when she sizzled at the Meadows for a $30-plus-win price. She had a tough “Futurity” and then got stung with Bold And Fresh finally fired. We cannot let her go here because this is going to be a serious attack and she should be at her best on the track, which is enough to beat these, and her price should be promising. If “Bold” goes the way of all gallopers, beware of Magic Wheel, a local Kadabra product that may do well being tested against better. A big exacta looms with her second to “Pan.”  

Race 6, mare pace

This is not a field to search for an overlay but a qualified longshot chance belongs to Maureen Rocks. She hasn’t been able to shove any of the classier gals over but she is always getting attention from bettors because she is, ultimately, an aggressive mare. I would think the public will dismiss her (she is 8-1 on the morning line [ML]).  

Race 7, 3yo filly pace

Swinging Beauty has the perfect style to finally take advantage of some tired stretch-pacers and may do just that in the weaker of the two soph-filly elims. You cannot knock her in this field, where the ML favorites are all suspect. Her 6-1 ML may be a conservative estimate to her closing odds.  

Race 9, 3yo filly pace

Rocklamation is one of those exacta add-ons, never getting the edge to beat rivals but cashing a lot of check trying. Her 4-1 ML seems generous, as this field has to deal with the return of See You At Peelers, who’s bound to get a lot of attention in the wagering. Still, “Rock” could get her way in one scenario that may play out, so why not take a shot at a legitimate overlay.   

Race 10, 3yo colt pace

Custard The Dragon has not emptied his tank and may be up for a huge mile with the big money and fame on the line. He qualified well after being scratched, which could have been the reason he began to falter after some magnificent miles. He has a lot going for him in the field, a group he can beat on his best day under most circumstances. His ML is 7-1 and we had him both times he won big this season at those kind of odds.   

Race 11, 3yo colt pace

Fashion Delight had a rough sophomore season but has come around well late. He could be peaking now as he rolls into what looks like it could be a monstrous older-pacer campaign. This division has been fickle all year and you have to be crazy to wager on the favorite here to win. Go with Tetrick driving Jim Campbell’s under-rated colt for the upset.  

The Red Mile—focus on ‘tunnel vision’

In Kentucky, no matter how you spin it, the thoroughbreds will always be the big equine stars of horseracing. But serious students of pari-mutuel play are aware that the “underground” for horseplayers in Kentucky is in Lexington on a magnificent mile track primarily presenting harness racing. Playing online is easy and informative (with our series of supportive blogs) when you do it with an account at TwinSpires.

Each year at The Red Mile, overnight racing is filled with delicious overlays and in autumn, along with the Grand Circuit's two-week meet, presenting Breeders Crown eligibles battling their way to the elims. It's the very best standardbreds of the season racing for big bucks and it can offer great value for the astute handicapper.  

This mile track (each harness race at the standard distance brings horses around the oval once) includes a terrific stretch, known for years as “the tunnel.” Few stretches on mile-long tracks have the reputation for upsets, as does this real estate. It is especially adored in the ranks of the overnight classes, but many a star favorite has also fallen in its wake.  

In general, sharp handicapping on Red Mile racing includes a focus on horses that normally race on the Midwest’s half- and five-eighths mile tracks in Ohio. Many of these horses (especially ones suffering from recent bad trips on the smaller tracks) seem to thrive on getting a comfortable grip on the dirt down the tunnel. Local horses may love their home track, but new faces wake up briskly on their first and second trips over this oval.  

Few horses, however, classy or not, can overcome any radical climate changes that can take place in the tunnel; these can weigh heavily on the outcome of a race. Each change benefits a different kind of racing styles.  

The track’s normal “fast” surface has no loyalty to inside or outside positions. Starting from anywhere, a clean, ground-saving trip is usually complemented by a fast tunnel journey. More times than not this kind of come-from-behind trip will down the pacesetter. Certainly, the second-over trip can often catapult a closer through the stretch. With the fast conditions of the tunnel on its side, the trip horse can leave the field gasping for air. 

Although tough speed duels can help a horse come from far behind, speed can hold up well on a fast track in the tunnel. Deep come-from-behind victories are rare when the track is under clear skies and dry.  

But you can see the tunnel’s bias change quickly, usually when rain falls and certainly based on how much of it pelts the surface. Oddly enough, speed can falter more quickly in sloppy going in the tunnel than it does on a fast track. Wire-to-wire wins can be accomplished in the early stages of rain, but pacesetters get bogged in the tunnel as the mud thickens the path to the finish line. The track is kept in fine shape no matter the weather conditions, so a bettor has to be a sharp weatherman as well as an astute handicapper.

The Grand Circuit's two-week stay at Lexington’s Red Mile begins Sept. 29. The Kentucky Futurity for glamour-boy trotters is on Oct. 2. The highlights of the second week are the $700,000 (est.) Tattersalls Pace for three-year-old colt pacers, as well as the Glen Garnsey Memorial for three-year-old filly pacers, Bluegrass stakes for soph-colt and filly trotters and International Stallion Stakes events for two-year-olds of both sexes and gaits.

Little Brown Jug presents eligible-filled elims

The 2011 Little Brown Jug field may look a bit short with only two elim heats and a dozen horses entered but both of those fields are filled with Breeders Crown eligibles.  

The Jugette, however, has a quartet of entries ineligible to the “Crown.”  

Each elim heat for the “Jug” is worth $84,288.  

The first elim finds the event’s morning-line favorite, hometown-pacer Big Bad John (Western Hanover), trained by Ron Potter and driven by David Miller in post 2, just outside of the rail horse, Something For Doc (Western Hanover). In the 3 hole is Powerful Mist (Powerful Toy), followed by Foreclosure N (Rocknroll Hanover), Custard The Dragon (Dragon Again) and High Noon (Western Ideal).  

All of these colts, with the exception of “Doc,” have battled one another in major stakes and “John” has been less than domineering with them. The most overlooked, usually, is “Custard,” who we correctly chose to win two of his highest-paying wins. Of the group, he is the best bet to defeat John. Post 5 may not be a big problem for Custard, even on the four-turn mile.  

The best thing about Custard, though, is the fact that after a few losses and being up against the hometown choice, he could go off at juicy odds, even in this small field.  

The second elim will have some odds issues. The 4, Betterwithcheddar (Bettor’s Delight), supplemented to the event and winner of the Cane Pace, will be sharing favoritism with the 6, Up The Credit (Western Terror) and the 5, Roll With Joe (Cam’s Card Shark).  

The three probable favorites will have to negotiate good trips coming from the outside three posts. This leaves the 1, Rollwithitharry (Rocknroll Hanover), a chance to take advantage of the wood as well as the inside down the stretch the final time. But if he maintains the lead after taking it early, he could force the others wide and make them tired.  

For the Jugette, with each elim worth  $58,470, we have two fields where four fillies are non-eligible to the Crown.  

Although Idyllic (in elim one) is the event favorite, that may be based on a peculiar mile, the one where she handed See You At Peelers an historic first loss. Idyllic (American Ideal), who we had supported through the season, got a good deal that day, with “Peelers” racing too fast early from a bad post and, as we know now, showing signs of a condition that now leaves her on the sidelines until further notice.  

Even if Idyllic wins the first elim, which includes hopefuls Tu Sei Bella (Bettor’s Delight), Myluvmylife (Rocknroll Hanover) and non-eligibles What’s New Pussycat and Latin Lyric, we feel that Pretty Katherine (Rocknroll Hanover) from elim two will win the event. 

The second elim also includes eligibles Roclamation (Rocknroll Hanover), Strike An Attitude (Western Hanover) and Swinging Beauty (Art Major), along with Musette Mindale and Rackratese. 

To defy Idyllic in the first round, judge the value of Myluvmylife for a wager. In the second round, key “Katherine” in exotics if her odds come up short. 

Check here before Sept. 22 for some contender news in other Jug-day events.

See Hambletonian Society for archives and other news as the countdown to the Crown ensues. 

Hambo cast reunites for another classic

Field of dreams, indeed. This week in Canada, two- and three-year-old Breeders Crown eligibles collect in fields at Mohawk on Sept. 10 with grandeur in their gaits.  

Many Hambletonian participants meet again in the Canadian Trotting Classic eliminations, including the Hambo-winner Broad Bahn.  

The first elim has six eligibles in seven starters. “Bahn” meets Blue Porsche (who did not make the Hambo final) head on here and could produce a deadly duel. That would open up the path for Whatever It Takes to upset. This guy has upset in his division already this year, when we had him for a big price along the Hambletonian Trail. The best scenario for a price here, then, is to key “Whatever” and hope for the burn-out duel.  

In round two, six hopefuls repeat confrontations from a few frays this season, including the Hambo. Manofmanymissions has been very sharp since busting in the Hambo and Pastor Stephen is yet to lose a race at Mohawk. Chapter Seven has had a rest, Whiskey Tax just won for us at 6-1 and Highland Thunder is the fresh cast member.  

But Charlie De Vie (pictured), from post 1, is, on his best day, a powerhouse. With no running in this race, “Charlie” can muck up the works and deliver a better-than-fair price.  

Also on the program will be Simcoe events for soph colt pacers and Champlains for freshmen sidesteppers.  

Among the pacers, hopeful Westwardho Hanover is rightfully the morning-line favorite and he should take the first Simcoe, hopefully over eligible Line Officer. Outsider Rockabillie will be the price play in the second Simcoe, as we once again ignore Up The Credit as he burns win money. Mystician (also Crown-worthy) would be the second choice.  

In the first Champlain for frosh-colt pacers, we have to give eligible (e) Allstar Legend one more shot. He has been racing with better than these and even from post 8 could be an easy winner.  

D Terminata (e) should once again have a good shot at toppling Speed Again (Metro Pace failed favorite) and Hurricane Kingcote, who gets the 10 post. A big exactor would be “D” to Special Blend (e), who we still feel has some good pace in him.  

The filly Champlain should find Pirouette Hanover (e) making up for her stretch tank in the She’s A Great Lady Final. Right behind her, count on Rockaround Sue for the exacta with some meat to its payoff.

See them and wager on them at TwinSpires and read the results and see the archives at Hambletonian Society's website.

Exclusive coverage at hand again

With the cooperation of the Hambletonian Society and TwinSpires, we are excited to present our exclusive blog, dedicated to harness racing’s spectacular Breeders Crown series.  

The Breeders Crown is an annual series of standardbred races featuring each of the sport’s 12 traditional categories of age, gait and gender. The series was initiated by the Hambletonian Society in 1984, providing lucrative high-profile championship races in each category.  

Last year we covered the eliminations and finals from Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs, which included two programs of terrific wagering opportunities. A score of elimination races set the stage for the dozen finals covering each division. In 2010 the program for finals took place on a single evening for the first time in the series’ history.  

In 2011 a dozen finals will be held at Woodbine Racetrack on Oct. 29, with a yet-to-be-determined number of eliminations on Oct. 21 and Oct. 22.  

Of course, we will be covering both of the “Crown” programs again, as we have for six years on the Internet (the only team to cover the events live and in real time). As well, this blog material analyzes the major events featuring top contenders making their way to the Crown elims. Our inside, experienced and success-proven methods will be paying attention to and letting readers in on some valuable wagers as the clock ticks down to the elims. 

We are devoted to handicapping information featuring the eligibles of all divisions in events leading to October’s Breeders Crown festival at the legendary Canadian track. Race analyses and result stories will be covered exclusively on the pages of Hambletonian Society. Other coverage will be documented at the twice-weekly TwinSpires blog.  

Harness racing’s greatest night always gets peak attention and professional views directed at bettors. We hope to join with TwinSpires for a Bettors’ Pool on the historic night of finals and offer win and exotic wagering suggestions that can help TwinSpires account-holders the best information possible to make successful wagers.   

For other, late-breaking Crown news items, follow us at Twitter @FrankCotolo and @RayCotolo.