Breeders Crown finals, 2014 continued

The Breeders Crown finals analysis for Friday (Nov. 21) and Saturday (Nov. 22) continue from the TwinSpires harnessblog on the main site.

There will be only one more edition of this blog for 2014, which will be an epilogue essay addressing the the season. It is scheduled for the week following the finals.

This blog looks at the older events for both sexes on both gaits.

Friday, Nov. 21

Mares Trot ($250,000)

Bee A Magician will headline the wagering here, no doubt, but she will have to work for this victory. Classic Martine has been a problem for her, especially at the Meadowlands, and Ma Chere Hall goes for new connections (she chased “Bee” a lot at three and picked up some good checks). D’Orsay, of course, is still the highest priced winner we have supported this season, winning over the summer to pay $100 or so, and she is always available to topple a field at a price.

And then there’s Mistery Woman, who is getting better with age and recently ignored by the public when winning. Last week’s 15-1 win by Handover Belle depended upon Bee’s outland journey, while “Mistery” went off a notch less at 14-1. Mistery had the most impressive trip and should once again go off higher than she deserves. Bee will pick up the place, most likely getting a far better trip.

Saturday, Nov. 22

Mares Pace ($281,250)

Let’s allow the public to believe Anndrovette can win every Breeders Crown Mares Pace in which she is entered and take the odds down too far so we can rally with a price in this here-we-go-again group that always delivers deep challenged miles. Two supplements, Yagonnakissmeornot and Venus Delight, have more to lose than the regulars but don’t expect the others to make that an edge. If the two or three that want the front get too frisky with the fractions, the main closer, Rocklamation, will eat up the stretch with her one-dimensional gait.

However, this could wind up a strategic win with a last-mare-standing finish. Multi-talented Somwherovrarainbow will be in a good spot to avoid duels and dig in late. As well, Camille is on the rail and may be gifted more room than usual (she has disappointed a few times as a choice so perhaps she would like to be on the board as an outsider).

Open Pace ($400,000)

There are only seven stalwart pacers here, yet there could be a good price on Sweet Lou, considering he has not been scoring ones of late. He is still the best here and could come right back to his seasonal shape and eat up all four quarters. Some of these horses have loyal fans, so expect the win pool to be spread out. Foiled Again, Clear Vision, Thinking Out Loud and State Treasurer all have followers that will play for some kind of glory, as opposed to profit.

Open Trot ($500,000)

Four veteran trotters show up due to byes, so that means Commander Crowe, Creatine, Intimidate and Market Share had a week off to prepare for this heavy mile; heavy because the group is fast and experienced and each is full of his or herself. The she is Maven, who won the elim impressively against the males last week, going for the first time in the Takter barn. We were second last week with Your So Vain and that race brings us to this race regardless of the freshened foursome. One of that four, of course, is the foreign Commander Crowe. How his style affects the mile remains to be seen but considering the mixture of early-and-late speed here, Your So Vain is in the perfect spot and could be the perfect price for a score (which his trainer, Ake Svanstedt, would love to happen since his prize trotter, Sebastian K—who has beaten “Crowe” in Europe—is not in this event).


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The Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site, have brought bettors exclusive coverage through 2014. Thank you for making our decisions a part of your wagering strategy.

Quantum of mediocrity

The 2013 Breeders Crown finals hosted a herd of horses that were arguably more talented than many casts of equine characters in the past decade, maybe longer. As well, the grand total of talent was headed by a quartet of horses that rose above the remarkable cache of competitors.

The Four Horses of the Apocalypse, so to speak, are Captaintreacherous, I Luv The Nitelife, Father Patrick and Bee A Magician. They ruled over exceptional fields in their divisions, putting them on a near-legendary plane. Indeed, if horses, like people, can be measured by the company they keep, these four particular heroes and heroines are superlative examples of the breed, no less their individual divisions.

All you need to do is spotlight the great horses that lost and not just in the four divisions represented by the “Four Horses.” Peruse your program again and imprint the names of these steeds into your brain for future support at the windows, as well as for what they may contribute to the bloodline.

Hail the fallen, too. In the two-thirds of divisions free of fighting the Four Horses, commemorate the many off-the-board finishers that came to the Pocono Mountains to fight and fought, though the mile journey was not paved with gold for them. I hasten to drop names here, for to isolate one or two would insult the others.

Suffice it to say that Uffizi Hanover won the frosh-filly pace against eight fillies that were neither green nor weak. It was the same with Shake It Cerry; she toppled eight frosh trotters that each may have beaten any number of others the division offered this season.

Market Share’s Open Trot win excelled, also, in face of his competition. Luck Be Withyou’s win was lifted by the talents of eight others, as were the miles of Maven (mare trot), Shelliscape (mare pace), Spider Blue Chip (soph-colt trot) and Foiled Again (Open pace).

This was not a ruck of horses, this was a preternatural, communal caldron of horses in top condition, undaunted in their efforts even as Mother Nature placed physically severe conditions their hoofs. Not a one of them suffered the ignominy of being forgotten; each will most assuredly be heard from again in their next campaign level. 

 

So, to all of the equine participants and their human connections, we loudly applaud from the grandstands and the apron’s tack.

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Thank you for follow the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog; archived reports on the season’s results appear at the Hambletonian Society web site and we thank the society for its appreciation of harness bettors everywhere. We hope to provide you another season of champions when the Breeders Crown returns, this time to the New Meadowlands, in 2014.

 

Stalwart seniors tough it out in four finals

This Saturday at Pocono Downs the Breeders Crown the older sets co-star in the dozen finals for the 2013 championship program. The main TwinSpires harness blog brings you here for the analysis of this quartet. Here are the fields, along with comments for each horse, followed by our two suggested top contenders not necessarily in order of preference.

$250,000 Mares Open Trot
Post - Horse
1 – Maven – She is the obvious public choice and has done best in her division all year.
2 - Check Me Out – Last season Maven could not keep up with this gorgeous gal. This season things have reversed, except her elim was a sign of maturity she hasn’t shown while trying to make her four-year-old season a success.
3 - Bax Of Life – She just cannot beat these under the usual circumstances and probably won’t tonight, either.
4 – Unefoisdanmavie – Her elim was super. She was second over, made up plenty of ground and closed to beat two inside of her.
5 – Dorsay – Her breaking issues were gone in the elim but she was short and that is disturbing.
6 - Real Babe – A suck-a-long type that should not cause much trouble.
7 - Beatgoeson Hanover – This one needs a trip and a speed duel in front, neither likely to accommodate her here.
8 - Cedar Dove – Few scenarios offer evidence she will win.
9 - Cowgirl Hall – She had promise but her elim was flat.
AE1 - Win Missy B – She showed a ton of speed coming back from a layoff, needed that race and could be considered but she most likely will not get into the race.
AE2 - Mystical Starlight – It would be luck to get into the race and she would need a lot more to win it.

Check Me Out; Unefoisdansmavie; Maven

$500,000 Open Pace
Post - Horse
1 - Clear Vision – He has gotten better as the season waned but won’t be the best in time to win this.
2 - Foiled Again – He won the elim strongly but his in-and-out form this season makes him vulnerable.
3 - Golden Receiver – He never regained the power he had at the beginning of the season and did not impress us in his elim but he has a history of surprising wake-up miles.
4 - Modern Legend – This guy could be peaking at the right time. He raced a tougher trip than the winner last week, passing three while closing to be best of the rest.
5 - Pet Rock – He is always in it and with the week off (from his bye) he could be the strongest when the smoke has cleared.
6 - Warrawee Needy – At best he was a contender all year and never a strong threat. One great race does not a season make, so to speak.
7 - Michaels Power – Why is he even in this race? He was never a first-notch contender.
8 - Bolt The Duer – He will strike when opportunity knocks and some other horse does all the work through the mile. That scenario will not present itself here.
9 - Sweet Lou – He fights and can win either way but it looks like he will be in traffic and that won’t do his talent any justice.
AE1 - Bettors Edge – There is little chance he will be in it and then he will have to rely on a speed duel to close.
AE2 - A Rocknroll Dance – What the hell happened to him last week? He may have emptied his tank of comeback fuel that got him back into the divisional picture late.

Modern Legend; Pet Rock; Golden Receiver

$300,000 Open Mares Pace
Post - Horse
1 – Rocklamation – We have been with her for all of her high-paying wins but we don’t feel this will be one of them.
2 – Anndrovette – She won off of a great trip and was one of the rare horses to close on the inside she but may not get such a journey this week.
3 - Economy Terror – She has been dull all season and was no bargain in the elim.
4 - Swinging Beauty – We liked her in the elim but she couldn’t get going in a great spot behind a duel so she seems no threat.
5 - Monkey On My Wheel – She was just nabbed by Anndrovette and deserves the call to be a few steps better than the others now. She was improving every week since coming back into action and may be looking at a strong winter campaign.
6 - Feeling You – She may be involved because she is good and you can toss out her elim but we don’t think she will win it.
7 – Shelliscape – There was never any real threat from her in this division.
8 – Camille – Her season appears over already, she makes no noise when the going is silent.
9 - Drop The Ball – She will get some action but may have to work too hard for her own good from this post.
AE1 - Krispy Apple – There is no worry she will upset if she gets in it.
AE2 - Ooh Bad Shark – This one has no bite, if you will excuse the pun.

Monkey On My Wheel; Rocklamation; Anndrovette

$600,000 Open Trot
Post - Horse
1 - Market Share – It looked early like the 2012 Hambo winner was going to dominate but it was a rash forecast. We don’t feel he is seasoned enough yet.
2 - Wishing Stone – This guy is always a threat and has beaten them all more than once.
3 - My MVP – There seems no argument that he would perform his best here and topple the likes of this group.
4 – Guccio – Perhaps next year he will be a dynamo but that scourge will probably not begin in this race.
5 – Intimidate – He appears ready to try another late-season stroll in the limelight but we think he is over his head.
6 - Mister Herbie – Can we ever toss out this monstrous guy who, though inconsistent as a winner, always finds a way to be in it.
7 - Arch Madness – The Red Mile rumbled from his performances and he has his favorite driver-trainer at the throttle. We expect a very big mile.
8 - Uncle Peter – The strength at the end of the mile will be with him and the 7 horse because they are simply in the best shape of the lot coming into this event.
9 – Sevruga – He may not care to be wide for two turns and once he puts in gear that is what he may have to tolerate to win.

Arch Madness; Uncle Peter; Mister Herbie

The Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog have presented this exclusive look at great betting races that included eligibles weekly. The archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site.

 

Autumn’s amazing cast of ‘Crown’ characters in full battle regalia for a month

Once again we launch The Breeders Crown Countdown, the official Hambletonian Society and TwinSpires bettors’ blog for stakes leading to the sport’s biggest nights of racing, the Breeders Crown elims and finals. This year marks the return of the series to Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs. 

 

All 12 event finals will be to be raced Saturday, Oct. 19, 2013. Eliminations for three-year-old-and-up events, as well as the two-year-old colt pace, if necessary will be raced Saturday, Oct.12, 2013. Eliminations for all other two-year-old events, if necessary go on Friday, Oct. 11, 2013. 

 

The estimated purses this years are:

Open Trot: $600,000

Mare Trot: $250,000

Open Pace: $500,000

Mare Pace: $300,000

2-year-olds: $600,000

3-year-olds: $500,000

 

This blog will offer valuable suggestions for wagering on all Breeders Crown (BC) eligibles competing in major events around North America (and sometimes Europe) leading to the elimination weekend. Other races involving possible participants (supplements, etcetera) are covered in the weekly TwinSpires harness blog. 

 

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the big nights at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get an account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets. 

 

Top dogs 

 

Every horse from this season that has a spot in the top-10 earning list so far is a BC eligible. However, only six of the 12 divisions are represented on that list. The stakes with top earners—even beyond the top-10 list—will be a focus of this blog and the total of events concerning eligibles will be shared with the TwinSpires harness blog. 

 

The top-10 list, in order of earnings as of this post: 

 

Captaintreacherous

Clearly one of the greatest pacers of all time, we have endorsed him to the benefit of bettors since the beginning of his super sophomore season. 

 

Bee A Magician

We found this great filly trotter at two, when she paid the most and began her domination of the frosh division. She has come on at three to beat everything that moves. 

 

Royalty For Life

The Hambletonian winner was one of our top picks in the April issue of Hoof Beats. Though he has not paid well enough to formally endorse at three, he is a major factor in his division. 

 

I Luv The Nitelife

We continually try to beat this beautiful soph filly and have been less than successful. Once we began to key her in exotics we saw profits. She is a wickedly fast filly that can already be called her division’s top choice in the big series.

 

Foiled Again

A stalwart older pacer who became the biggest earner of all time, he continues to challenge veterans and new-to-the-division four-year-olds with tenacity. He is always a threat. 

 

Corky

One of Jimmy Takter’s stream of trotters that shows enough talent to make this list without having won uber-major [sic] events. He has a lot to do to beat the likes of Royalty For Life and even Smilin Eli (who shows up as the 13^th highest earner this year) but he may improve greatly as the temperatures tighten. 

 

Pet Rock

We nabbed him at three, seeing a whole lot of talent and then he exploded at four and has been a patch of wildfire in every older pacing event. 

 

Vegas Vacation

He made a lot of money so far but on the tail of Captaintreacherous. He is fast but not fast enough, he is aggressive but does not seem to overcome adversity like his main foe. 

 

Anndrovette

We caught his older pacing gal every time the public backed off on her and cashed well. She still seeks the proper respect she should have for racing with force and ferocity.

 

Sunfire Blue Chip

Like the other glamour-boys pacers, this mid-season star has managed to do his best when Captaintreacherous is resting from one of his trounces of horses even better than this one. We don’t have a lot of confidence he will stay on this list for long.  

Other big earners, like Sevruga (older trotter), Feeling You (mare pacer) and some already deserving freshmen, will be covered weekly on the partnering blogs.