Always B Miki poised to make the plunge to prove he may be best

This Friday, Oct. 31, Hoosier Park’s $275,000 stakes, The Monument Circle, offers 10 glamour-boy pacers another chance at a big paycheck before dropping into the box for the Breeders Crown elims.

But three of the field’s members are not eligible to the “Crown,” and one of them is possibly the best soph-colt pacer—Always B Miki.

Always B Miki first came to the attention of the public when he was second in The Meadowlands Pace. Leaving from post 9, he never saw the wood. He was six wide into the first turn and settled on the outside with cover but gapped that cover before putting on some speed after three-quarters. Then, he had to fan five wide and he closed strongly to soar home second. Hes Watching sat a perfect trip, going second over late, came out and rolled home following tired ones, as the tremendous fractions forced horses to walk the last hundred yards.

Always B Miki was better than Hes Watching in the “Pace” and is now superior to most in the Monument Circle field. Hes Watching is not in the field at Hoosier Friday. After a few terrible, though predictable losses following the Pace, Hes Watching may be done for the season.

When Hes Watching won the Pace, we still considered Jk Endofanera the division’s leader, a status greatly disagreed about among many insiders, all of whom embraced the Pace winner and practically anointed him with the divisional crown. No one saw the Pace win as opportunistic, except us, and we went on to beat Hes Watching while he burned bettors’ money.

But “Jk,” lost in the smoke of the Pace fractions, went on campaigning successfully after losing the Pace and is still kicking, coming off some wins as he faces the Monument Circle field.

Also in the Monument Circle is our Little Brown Jug winner, Limelight Beach and Windy City Pace winner Big Boy Dreams, who is another Crown ineligible but hardly makes the cut compared to “Miki” and Jk.

Six of the colts are from the Ron Burke barn but only Jk appears to be in the direct path of Miki for the lion’s share of this purse. Winning this race would put trainer Joe Holloway and the connections of Miki into serious conversations about supplementing Miki to the Crown.

Miki is 10 for 17, many at Hoosier where the Indiana-bred devours any competition in his state division, but Miki has beaten some of the best and comes into this affair with $641,482 earnings, second only to Jk, who is just short of a million.

There is no way for us to suspect that Jk and Miki cancel one another out, leaving room for an upset, we simply see what we have seen all along being the core of the race. Jk will drop into the Crown box whether he wins this or not but seeing Miki’s name there depends on a forceful win in the Monument Circle and that is something we feel will propel a win here, even if his connections decide not to dig into their pockets.

It’s hard to assign a fair price to Miki but he may be more than usual considering the star-studded lineup and the Burke barrage involved.

The other non-eligible is Bluehourpower, one of our Indiana Sires Stakes winners two weeks back. Also in the field are Crown hopefuls At Press Time, Forty Five Red, Let’s Drink On It, Somewhere in LA and Jet Airway.

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Follow major BC hopefuls on their road to the November Breeders Crown at the Meadowlands at the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Cartoons by Thom Pye

Fiery speed on The Red Mile in Bluegrass Stakes

The Red Mile hosts another powerful Grand Circuit meeting in Lexington, Kentucky for two weeks and the first Friday program features eight divisions of the lucrative Bluegrass Stakes.

The Walnut Hall, LTD Bluegrass for two-year-old colt trot offers five races handling the 41 entries and freshman filly pacers split three ways in the Crawford Farms Bluegrass (BG).

The first colt-trot BG, worth $78,400, marks the return of Centurion Atm, the Peter Haughton Memorial winner and 2015 winter-book favorite for the Hambletonian. The colt appears to have it all over this group, though two others have won as many races. Watch for improvement from Whataworkout, who is one for one and may be packing heat yet to be displayed.

In round two ($78,400), undefeated Billy Flynn looks for his eighth-straight win while facing the four-for-nine Ray Schnittker colt Gabe The Bear Dean. Perhaps those two should fear Muscle Diamond, who has a clear shot at an upset? We like the Muscle Hill colt who has yet to pull the plugs on his speed.

For $79,400, nine colts go in the next BG event on the program. It is difficult to look beyond Habitat, who we backed in the “Wellwood” and whose performace was breathtaking, to say the least. He may have what it takes to go all the way in the late-season stakes. The RC Royalty colt, Wings Of Royalty, should also be in the mix prominently.

Next for the colts at $78,400, a pick of the public’s (and ours) in a New York Sires Stakes Final, Crazy Wow, looks to take on colts from other states in this BG. Jimmy Takter’s Uncle Lassie returns to find a better gait and both of these colts, joined by Guess Whos Back, will get plenty of betting action. That leaves us with an outside chance of an upset with Iron. The Frank Antonacci-trained colt from the productive Cantab Hall, tries his third pari-mutuel race and could be a lot better than the first two. His price will not be negotiable, which is great.

The last colt-trot, also for $78,400 with eight at the gate, has the Ron Burke-conditioned Piercewave Hanover ready to suck in all the win-pool dough. But Ake Svanstedt’s Smart As A Whip may be a lot faster than his five-eighths mile mark, his maiden win, and with a Burke and a Jimmy Takter in the field (The Bank), Ake’s steed should offer some bucks.

Seven frosh-filly pacers go for $95,200 in the first of the BGs for the green gals. Burke’s filly may rule the win pool here, too, as Well Hello There appears superior to all of her opponents but one—Bettor Be Steppin. Joe Holloway’s student has been sharp winning and these two may not allow any large figures to light up the tote board.

For $96,200, the next filly BG pits eight against one another, with Burke’s Sassa Hanover sporting six wins in eight starts and a hefty bankroll. The “Rocknroll” blood flows through five of the eight (including Burke’s probable favorite). Takter’s Zip Code Envy leaves from the far outside but if she is getting better, she may get better than the best here.

The remaining filly BG ($96,200) may develop into a fine wagering race if three of the obvious choices don’t divide the win pool. Ross Croghan has a good one with Shakai Hanover and she may lose support to the Burke gals. If you are looking for a boost in exotics, try using Deli Beach, who may split rivals if they go too fast to the half—it’s a long stretch and there’s a lot of room to catch up.

Friday’s 12-race program gets underway at 7:00 p.m.

Photo of Lexington during Autumn by Tom Tanner

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Follow major BC hopefuls on their road to the November Breeders Crown at the Meadowlands at the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Reynolds wraps frosh into groups at Tioga

Tioga Downs offers Grand Circuit racing for frosh pacers in divisions of the Reynolds Stakes on Sept. 12. The events are presented filly to colt through the card.

The top of the evening’s Reynolds finds filly pacers in round one for $25,503. There are only six in the field and just one is a Somebeachsomewhere product. Two for six in her first season, Deli Beach. She is looking at the November classic and may be a weak third choice here for the sake of obvious favorites.

The next Reynolds finds eight colts lining up for a purse of $23,077. We may all be stuck with the favorite, Mcardles Lightning, who we backed last week in a Pennsylvania Sires Stakes final, where he was 37-1 and finished sixth. Here, however, he handles a lesser ilk and seems to be the best.

It’s back to fillies next, with a $25,903 prize. Stacia Hanover is unbeaten in three but the non-eligible Dobre Povedane can ruin that streak with a good enough trip. As long as she doesn’t challenge the choice head to head in any kind of duel, she could pull this off.

Another $23,077 affair for colts includes five maidens and two with single wins versus three-for seven Hall Of Terror. But the Well Said colt, Well Well Well has qualified a tick off of the best time from “Terror,” giving him a possible edge with a price to match.

Six fillies have to contend with Bettor Be Steppin in this $25,903 contest and she won’t be a juicy price, having raced with much better gals, even though she has one win to the four posted by Bugatti Beauty, who is a non-eligible.

Again for $23,077, colts go in the next Reynolds on the Tioga card. Dealt A Winner will be dealt the favorite card here but the Jim Campbell-trained Gallic Beach, the only Somebeachsomewhere guy in here has a shot at a better price, plus, he has more to gain as an eligible, where “Dealt” is not one.

The Reynolds nightcap features the colts left over from the cast of the evening; seven of them go for $22,677. Dragon Eddy should become the public choice but is ineligible to the classic. That leaves us with My Hero Ron, Paparazzi Hanover, Boris (zero for four) and Jk Allnitelong. The latter, by Bettor’s Delight, just graduated and it was his first race. He faces his second race meeting two maidens and not so many wins for the winners. He is eligible and may take another here with those edges and at a decent price.

Also on Saturday, two $35,000 eliminations for the Milton Stakes are on the Mohawk program. Sixteen of the best pacing mares of 2014 make up two eight-horse eliminations. The top five finishers from both elims advance to the $286,000 final on Saturday, Sept. 20.

The first elimination features millionaire-pacing mares Drop The Ball, Camille, Krispy Apple and Monkey On My Wheel, along with Aunt Caroline, Mattie Terror Girl, Summertime Lea and Jerseylicious.

The millionaires are acquainted with one another due to countless meetings over the past few years and their behavior usually dictates who gets the best of whom. Monkey On My Wheel is back home for Casie Coleman and this one has been working a lot on the half-milers. Returning to Canada and at Mohawk may remind her that she can trip through the early speed and the latecomers and pull an upset.

In the second elim, Rocklamation, last year’s Milton Stakes winner, defends her title. Rocklamation, our choice and a longshot winner last year, needs fiery front fractions and the big-dollar gals can provide that again. Ron Burke trains the six-year-old, who has earned over $2 million. But the richest mare in the field is Anndrovette, trained by P.J. Fraley, has made more than $3 million. The other seven are Charisma Hanover, Radar Contact, Voelz Hanover, Ferrari Sena, Yagonnakissmeornot and Shelliscape.

Anndrovette goes in and out of her best performances and perhaps it is time for a good gal who may be overlooked here to take control. That is Yagonnakissmeornot, who, like “Monkey,” has been competitive at Yonkers regularly. Let’s give her the support here, where she can get a good spot and save some ground to win while the others struggle with one-dimensional attempts.


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Follow major BC hopefuls on their road to the November Breeders Crown at the Meadowlands at the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Pacers programmed for Saturday night action at Mohawk

The Grand Circuit remains stationed at Mohawk Racetrack heading into this weekend, with sophomore male pacers competing in two divisions of the Simcoe and both genders of freshmen pacers in a total of four divisions of the Champlain on Saturday, Sept. 7.

The opening division of the Simcoe also kicks off the Saturday action at Mohawk, featuring a sextet to start the early daily double. Although Western Vintage, off an eye-catching mile, and On Golden Ponder, off a 1:59.2 victory in the Kentucky Sires Stakes final, are entered in this affair, neither attracted our interest. Rather, Western Vintage’s neighbor, Winds Of Change, is the colt of interest.

Making his pari-mutual start in Canada this year, his talents resided on the New York Sires Stakes’ circuit, including the $255,525 Empire Breeders Classic, of which He’s Watching bested the division in 1:49.1. The speedy colt by American Ideal has back class and consistency; he puts in a good effort nearly every mile. Expect him to be a wild card in this event.

The second division, kicking off the late daily double, is anyone’s race. Melmerby Beach might certainly be the public choice fresh off his 46-1 victory against most of this group last week or Jet Airway may get play in hopes of redemption. Regardless, an improving son of Mach Three, who is known for being a speed-deviant, occupies the rail: Three Of Clubs. His most recent start was in the Carl Milstein Consolation, a race in which fast fractions were set that assisted in his 13-length pursuit for the show spot. Off a break, he could be ready to fire at first asking.

On the freshman spectrum, two divisions of the Champlain are carded for the colts and two for the fillies.

Class will likely be the voice of reason in regards to the public’s moves in the colt events, due to the Metro Pace, contested last week. This race features two finalists: Lyons Levi Lewis and Dudes The Man. Also in this event is Freedomformysoul, who makes his second start off a short break. In his return, he rode the pylons and finished third in 1:52 with a :27.1 final quarter. This race seems like one that would set up for a pocket-sitter to slingshot by competition and, from the rail, that horse might be the Nancy Johnasson trainee.

The second affair is one where there’s difficulty in trying to beat the class, Lyons Again and Traceur Hanover. That being said, we favor Traceur Hanover more in this event, due to him defeating similar stock back in the Nassageweya. Yet, Jake Blue Chip seems like an interesting colt in this race, as he’s improving with each outing. Expect that duo to be sharp in this episode.

New-gal-in-town Shes A Hot Mess will contest against Happy Becky and Shakai Hanover in the opening division of the Champlain for the gals. Coming in off an impressive victory against conditioned stock, she is the underdog of this group. Yet, because of her astonishing mile last week, she could also attract money. Nonetheless, we feel that she’ll be value in this event and has potential to improve into a nice filly.

The other filly split seems like a match event between Solar Sister and The Show Returns. Redeeming herself with a 1:52 victory in the “Great Lady” consolation, The Show Returns might be ready for a rise to the top. Even if that’s not the case, she is the one to beat this weekend if a similar performance is in the making.

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Follow major BC hopefuls on their road to the November Breeders Crown at the Meadowlands at the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site. 

Grand Circuit events highlight youngest divisions

Friday, Aug. 29, and Saturday, Aug. 30, Mohawk offers the lucrative Grand Circuit Champlain stakes for freshmen and the Simcoe stakes for sophomores, including many “Crown” eligibles looking to increase their bankrolls, as well as we are looking for races to wager and increase our betting bankrolls. We will always lean on “Crown” eligibles in these fields. (e)after horse’s name represents eligibles

Let’s look at Friday’s offerings:

The beloved Designed To Be (e) meets five others in the $103.845 Simcoe for soph-filly trotters and will be a prohibitive choice. There is good cause to back Scream And Shout (e), another Jimmy Takter gal who is on the improve.

The $124,621 Champlain for frosh-colt trotters is next. The frosh nominees are aplenty in general and this field has seven of 10. Trainer Jonas Czernyson has been sending green ones out with success and here he has the Muscle Hill colt Aldebaran Eagle (e), who should get overlooked as Habitat (e) will take in way too much dough.

Another Champlain for the frosh-trot colts with the same purse goes next. French Laundry has been good for Takter but he is not a nominee. Wheels Ah Smokin (e) comes from the Chuck Sylvester barn. The Muscles Yankee kid is looking like Chuck is aiming big with him and he should be a weak (good to bet) second choice.

Friday’s stakes stop with the soph-filly trot Simcoe for $105,344. The money will pour in for Lifetime Pursuit (e) but we have our eye on Demanding Sam (e) who could topple the tote board with a good trip, especially if Takter’s other filly, Donatella Hanover (e) goes for her stable mate’s throat.

Saturday’s Metro Pace program (see TwinSpires blog), starts with a $207,689 Simcoe for soph-filly pacers. Last year’s frosh champ Uffizi Hanover (e) has been trying to pump up her soph credits and Precocious Beauty (e) has found some life in her stride recently but all in all this is a tightly knit bunch. An outside contender, Nat A Virgin (e), an Indiana-bred by speedy Always A Virgin, seems to have enough talent to take on this group, being too good any more for the Indy crowd.

The $218,076 Simcoe for glamour-boy trotters marks the return of Trixton (e). The Hambletonian winner that took full advantage of Father Patrick’s galloping display, will be a dead-on choice here but he could be ready for a smack in the ego if Il Sogno Dream continues to grow stronger. This is a good time to test Trixton with a colt outside of the Takter universe; this mile could result in some nifty profits.

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Follow major BC hopefuls on their road to the November Breeders Crown at The Meadowlands with the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the HambletonianSociety web site.

Autumn’s amazing cast of ‘Crown’ characters in full battle regalia for a month

Once again we launch The Breeders Crown Countdown, the official Hambletonian Society and TwinSpires bettors’ blog for stakes leading to the sport’s biggest nights of racing, the Breeders Crown elims and finals. This year marks the return of the series to Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs. 

 

All 12 event finals will be to be raced Saturday, Oct. 19, 2013. Eliminations for three-year-old-and-up events, as well as the two-year-old colt pace, if necessary will be raced Saturday, Oct.12, 2013. Eliminations for all other two-year-old events, if necessary go on Friday, Oct. 11, 2013. 

 

The estimated purses this years are:

Open Trot: $600,000

Mare Trot: $250,000

Open Pace: $500,000

Mare Pace: $300,000

2-year-olds: $600,000

3-year-olds: $500,000

 

This blog will offer valuable suggestions for wagering on all Breeders Crown (BC) eligibles competing in major events around North America (and sometimes Europe) leading to the elimination weekend. Other races involving possible participants (supplements, etcetera) are covered in the weekly TwinSpires harness blog. 

 

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the big nights at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get an account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets. 

 

Top dogs 

 

Every horse from this season that has a spot in the top-10 earning list so far is a BC eligible. However, only six of the 12 divisions are represented on that list. The stakes with top earners—even beyond the top-10 list—will be a focus of this blog and the total of events concerning eligibles will be shared with the TwinSpires harness blog. 

 

The top-10 list, in order of earnings as of this post: 

 

Captaintreacherous

Clearly one of the greatest pacers of all time, we have endorsed him to the benefit of bettors since the beginning of his super sophomore season. 

 

Bee A Magician

We found this great filly trotter at two, when she paid the most and began her domination of the frosh division. She has come on at three to beat everything that moves. 

 

Royalty For Life

The Hambletonian winner was one of our top picks in the April issue of Hoof Beats. Though he has not paid well enough to formally endorse at three, he is a major factor in his division. 

 

I Luv The Nitelife

We continually try to beat this beautiful soph filly and have been less than successful. Once we began to key her in exotics we saw profits. She is a wickedly fast filly that can already be called her division’s top choice in the big series.

 

Foiled Again

A stalwart older pacer who became the biggest earner of all time, he continues to challenge veterans and new-to-the-division four-year-olds with tenacity. He is always a threat. 

 

Corky

One of Jimmy Takter’s stream of trotters that shows enough talent to make this list without having won uber-major [sic] events. He has a lot to do to beat the likes of Royalty For Life and even Smilin Eli (who shows up as the 13^th highest earner this year) but he may improve greatly as the temperatures tighten. 

 

Pet Rock

We nabbed him at three, seeing a whole lot of talent and then he exploded at four and has been a patch of wildfire in every older pacing event. 

 

Vegas Vacation

He made a lot of money so far but on the tail of Captaintreacherous. He is fast but not fast enough, he is aggressive but does not seem to overcome adversity like his main foe. 

 

Anndrovette

We caught his older pacing gal every time the public backed off on her and cashed well. She still seeks the proper respect she should have for racing with force and ferocity.

 

Sunfire Blue Chip

Like the other glamour-boys pacers, this mid-season star has managed to do his best when Captaintreacherous is resting from one of his trounces of horses even better than this one. We don’t have a lot of confidence he will stay on this list for long.  

Other big earners, like Sevruga (older trotter), Feeling You (mare pacer) and some already deserving freshmen, will be covered weekly on the partnering blogs. 

Battlefield Breeders Crown: The Older Divisions

The Breeders Crown series at Woodbine Racetrack on Oct. 27 includes four-year-olds and up from both sexes and gaits: The Mare Trot, the Open Trot (males), the Open Mare Pace and the Open Pace (one mare against males).

Read all of the archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Along with our TwinSpires blog, here is an analysis for those events, concentrating on our suggested contenders that we feel are worthy overlays or key winners due to their overwhelming chances of winning the event.

The valued contenders

The Open Mare Trot launches the series Saturday. This group includes Autumn Escapade, a friend of our betting bankroll since she began her campaign as a mare. Canada has been a healthy venue for her over the years. This season she spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania, with top mares at Pocono, and only won a single race.

But her Breeders Crown elim was impressive, some proof that she is returning to familiar territory where she excelled. She got a great spot early in that race and then became buried by three-quarters. She managed to shake free from foes on both sides and use a strong brush to get second while still charging.

A threat to her and the favorites will be Bax Of Life. She is a must for exotics. Her elim was powerful. She was extra game leaving from post 10 and held on with grace to get fourth after a long journey.

The Open Trot is a small field, which includes overseas champion Commander Crowe but presents a major hero of the division this year, Chapter Seven.

A good reason why Chapter Seven has become the unlikely leader of this group is that he is only a four-year-old. Maturing at the end of a sophomore season that presented five losses in 10 starts against a particularly talented crop (including Daylon Magician and Mister Herbie, also in this field), he came back to defeat older and more experienced steeds at four with regularity.

Beating him in this short field will be a chore, though the invader offers more hope than value. Commander Crowe has literally been all over the map in Europe and has made over a $1.5 million in 2012.

All you can hope for to dig up an upset has to do with Hot Shot Blue Chip. He is the only one here that has defied the others with speed and success, not counting “Crowe.” I wouldn’t expect much from such an upset, as the size of this field give the edge to Chapter Seven but if we need to go out on a limb for a price, Hot Shot Blue Chip gets our support.

The Open Mare Pace offers the talents of a mare that we began to support mid season who has done so well her connections bring her into this fray via supplement money, which is always an investment in faith. She is Rebeka Bayama and last week she won in a “Crown” sideshow event for her division, scorching the oval in 1:48.4.  

Rebeka Bayama is 3-1 on the morning line but will still offer some value, as Drop The Ball should get the bettors’ bulk of win money and last year’s winner, Anndrovette, is bound to pick up heavy support, especially being on the inside of the two mentioned.  

Closing the event for 2012 is the charge of the heavy brigade, so to speak, the stalwart elder pacing males in the Open Pace. Only this year a brave mare takes on the boys. She is Put On A Show. She is up against tons of iron, so to speak, and although she wants to pace into history by doing what no mare has done before in this series, we don’t feel she is up to the task.

 

Nor do we see a repeat in last year’s Bettor Sweet victory. Certainly the seven-year-old will be offering far less in odds than last season when he won as an outsider. That alone turns us off. However, we like the horse that last beat him, Golden Receiver. 

Though Golden Receiver defeated Bettor Sweet at Pocono Downs and then lost to him at The Red Mile and in a Woodbine Open prep for this event, this pacer has remarkable resilience and has come back strong throughout the season after displaying disappointing miles. He will certainly be a decent price among this group, which includes mega-money-maker Foiled Again and Hypnotic Blue Chip, who came back from retirement to swarm through fields of older pacers. 

The older divisions always make for challenging handicapping, as throughout the stakes season there is rarely a dominating figure. Aside from Chapter Seven in the Open Trot, no other horse or mare on either gait has been as reliable as his or her odds indicated.

 

This is a good reason for our choices, which as usual stand out from the mainstream-handicapping crowd. Any one can make a good case for most of these entries, which opens the realm of possibilities for those of us seeking the true overlay. The cases we are making become more acceptable under the circumstances.

Post time for the Breeders Crown finals on Saturday, Oct. 27 will be a special early post of 6:30 p.m. [EDT]. The finals will be followed live on TwinSpires @FrankCotolo and @RayCotolo and @TwinSpires.

Read all of the archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Back to the ‘Futurity’

The historic Kentucky Futurity and its sister event for fillies only are historic heat-racing events, so, as we are approaching the events as we usually do, concentrating on the heat divisions for our plays. May you have all the luck you need, no less get a good price, in the second heat.

In the first elim heat there are only six going.

Gym Tan Laundry has not lived up to our expectations after winning in Canada and proving we weren’t following him for nothing. That disappointment and the one after that puts him, still, as a 5-2 morning-line co-choice in this small field, which is far too little for us to become involved.

Little Brown Fox is certainly capable of wiring this bunch but he, too, has been wagered to death and coming up short to long-priced colts like Money On My Mind (see elim two).

This leaves us only one genuine upset contender in Another Amaretto. We have to assume that he will be the fourth choice, which is the same in the pecking order of the morning line. At 9-2 among these, especially with Archangel probably eating up the fractions with “Fox,” the short field could make those odds worth it.

Seven go in the second $114,300 elim heat, lead in the morning line (ML) by Guccio. We had him last week, though we expected a bit more of a win price when we made the call, but here we do not agree with the ML in terms of chances.

Tony Alagna has had My MVP in relentless pursuit of his division’s foes and picked up the third spot in the Hambletonian final and his elim. He is much better on a two-turn stage than shorter ovals and last week he already proved that he might be able to win staying closer to the top, without the mighty charge that allowed him to cash many checks.
 

Futurity Fillies

The first of the two elim heats has, in our opinion, a poor favorite in Chilitodayhottamale. She has not proven to be on a roll, even though last week she embraced The Red Mile surface with fire.

We are forced to look closely at Oasis Dream as the upset contender based on great performances against the aforementioned “Chili” and in the Buckette, where she was the dead-on choice but was short to Canadian Justice (the closer and here in post 2) and our huge longshot Fancy.

Superstar Hanover will get play along with Chili, giving“Oasis” more value.

In the second elim heat we are going to attempt a bold move by taking Bluff over Check Me Out. There is no way for us to incite an upset but Bluff has been getting better and Check Me Out comes into this on the wings of a very long campaign that could begin to wilt at any time, regardless of her domination over this division or the fact that her mentor Ray Schnittker said she will not race in the second heat (he is against heat racing). Still, she could be a victim of more aggressiveness that allows her to be nosed or headed and this may be a good time to catch that scenario, especially since she is more concerned with the Breeders Crown.

Last week Bluff lost, mostly due to a bad step at the start. She still wound up gaining ground to be third at a strongly supported 7-5. She has only to improve as she heads towards mare status.

Stalwart Seniors

Older pacers and trotters go in Allerage Farm features.

The first is for pacing mares and once again Drop The Ball is the early choice on the ML. However, her critical stop from scorched fractions last time, when we beat her with 23-1 Rocklamation, leaves her suspect in our book.

We feel Ginger And Fred has been racing better than her odds since August and can carefully stalk the hot pace here, getting enough real estate late to win as well as thwart the closing Rocklamation.

Next, the older trotting horses, six of the best, will shuffle and struggle, most likely trying to beat Chapter Seven. Linda Toscano’s monstrous four-year-old continues to beat older and here he has to deal with at least four others that are legitimate foes.

Wishing Stone is back from his oversea journeys where he has been productive against the best in European trotting. He is fresh and, of course, he is a veteran of the track, where he won the Kentucky Futurity at three in 2010.

He could be dismissed based on all the facts that should make him a strong contender. That is, the crowd is more aware of “Seven” and Mister Herbie in location and recency and Arch Madness and Hot Shot Blue Chip will share some win money. This leaves Wishing Stone in a probable overlay spot, one which can easily lure our wager.

The mare trotters are next, with Cedar Dove again at the head of the ML line. But this is a very tightly matched bunch and a personal odds line that could be written accurately would go through many drafts. We wish to pass.

The horse pace presents the usual suspects, each guilty of being courageously competitive all season. With Betterthancheddar pulled from the event and in question for the Breeders Crown, we see little reason not to hand this one over to Golden Receiver.

He is arguably the best of the division this season, if only by a mere point, and if he lives up to his ML at 9-2, which is the third choice, he is certainly worth backing.

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Cane Pace looming; Grand Circuit at Mohawk features primary players

The Big ‘Dance’ Rocks The Cane

Click here for Cane Pace essay, analysis ...

On Friday, Aug. 31, frosh-colt trotters battle for big money in the Champlain Stakes at Mohawk, part of the big Grand Circuit weekend (see TwinSpires blog for analysis of other major events). 

The first split is worth $140,914, the kind of purse most of these youngsters hope to see again as their careers ensue.  

Jim Oscarsson’s Aperfectyankee, who we gave you in the Peter Haughton and who won to become the 2013 Hambletonian future-book choice, is here and looking terrific; too good, in fact, to do anything but key in an exacta. There could be a decent return using Broadway Prince second. This developing youngster has good reason to be in this group and may be on his way to being a nemesis to the top choice into their soph seasons.  

The next split for the same division is worth $138,915 and Cool Victory could be the upset contender at a price. Although he has some breaking issues, he has done well despite the jumps and is well bred enough to improve once those young quirks are handled.  

Sept. 1 at Mohawk delivers some of our glamour-boy trotting pals from the Hambletonian Trail (cartoon by Thom Pye).  

The single split is worth $246,521 and we are all over Little Brown Fox.  

Hometown favorite Knows Nothing, who we beat last week with Presdigitator, also in this field, will get plenty of support, leaving “Fox” with a fair price. His loss to Googoo Gaagaa and Market Share was mainly a loss to the latter, who got a better trip while Fox cut the fractions.  

“Gaagaa” is not here and we feel Fox is much better than Knows Nothing on an even keel, so we should take advantage of the home-fans’ bias. 

At Pocono on Sept. 1 Pennsylvania Sires Stakes finals are worth $200,000. 

For top filly trotter Check Me Out, the soph-filly trot conclusion should be an afterthought. A pass is our choice. 

Soph-filly pacers bring us back to Economy Terror for a comeback off of a dull effort last week. She should be raring to go against this tepid group. 

More Hambo alumni from this season adorn the soph-colt trot final. My Mvp could continue to show great form now that his great form is winning him races. Frost Bites K may have some trouble from post 8 but demands attention in exotics. 

Finally, the soph-colt pace is a hometown showcase for Sweet Lou. He is the champ of the state-bred’s division and doesn’t have much to go up against here for some easy money—for him, that is, because bettors will be offered nothing.
 

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.