Yonkers Trot elims on tap

This Saturday, Oct. 18, the glamour-boy trotters get another shot at big money, as two $40,000 Yonkers Trot elimination divisions set the boys up for the final’s field on Oct. 25.

The final is worth $500,000, as the Yonkers Trot remains a major stake for the division, as well as a traditional staple in the stakes season.

Although Jimmy Takter trotters have a presence, the top dog in the division, his Father Patrick, is not in the elim mix.

Nuncio, however, is here, and will be leading the win-pool totals off of his $1-million-plus earnings, his eight-for-13 win record, the Takter name and driver John Campbell. Before the Kentucky Futurity, Nuncio played second fiddle to his stable mate Father Patrick. Nuncio won the Kentucky Futurity (a single heat this year) and arrives at this stakes elim with more than he has ever offered.

Once again, an Ake Svanstedt property may have a good chance of making Nuncio work for a win, if not be beaten. Dd’s Hitman has raced only nine times and has earned $56,803 for the efforts. He is getting better and if he brings his talent up a notch here, he could deliver a fine win price.

Exotic-wise, you may want to ignore the 8 hole for Trond Smedshammer’s Skates N Plates and use him as an element as Trond hands the reins over to George Brennan and will send “Skates” out hard looking for a berth in the final.

The second elimination has a few of the division’s second-string success stories in Gural Hanover, Hillustrious, Datsyuk (one of only two horses to beat Father Patrick this season if you don’t count the Hambletonian debacle), and especially Flyhawk El Durado. Though EL Titan is listed, the colt is also listed in the Maywood Galt Stakes on Oct. 17 (see TwinSpires harness blog). It is more than likely the colt will go in Chicago since drawing post 8 here.

Ron Burke handles Gural Hanover and Hillustrious, coming from the 1 and 2 post, respectively, so expect plenty of action on them. Datsyuk is bound to be among the top three public choices. But Flyhawk El Durado—a colt well acquainted with Yonkers—may not take as much support as he has in the past against New York-breds. Pound for pound, “Flyhawk” is probably a better horse than both of Burke’s and if he is third choice or worse there is no exception for us about who gets the win wager.  

Soph-pacing fillies negotiate for the Lady Maud Final’s field with two $20,000 elims on the same program. There are only five in round one and we like Fancy Desire in a romp. She may get to be second choice if Burke’s A La Notte Hanover picks up driver Brennan, who is listed on both fillies. It would be good to give Burke Brennan, it would boost our odds in this small field.

Six go in round two and it seems to belong to the obvious Act Now. This could be a great night for Brennan, who gets Act Now in this elim. As a key horse, Act Now may work well to pay decently in an exacta with Do Your Job.


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Follow major BC hopefuls on their road to the November Breeders Crown at the Meadowlands at the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site.

Cartoons by Thom Pye

Takter's top duo rule futurities

For the first time, the historic Kentucky Futurity will make more history, as the soph-colt trot will be held in a single mile--a first for the event.

Only nine colt trotters have been entered for the $435,000 event on Sunday, Oct. 5, at The Red Mile.

The Filly Futurity will also be on the program.

The main event for the glamour-boy trotters leaves little room for handicapping or betting, as Father Patrick takes on the other eight:

Dasyuk, Dee Dee's Hitman, Hillustrious, Il Sogno Dream, Lightning Force, Martiniwithmuscle, Mr Lindy and Nuncio.

Barring another strange Hambletonian-like incident--the odds of that are long--Father Patrick has no worries about beating this group, even Dasyuk, who beat him by a hair once this year.

The fillies may not offer more action, either.

Their futurity, also a single mile, features:

Chivaree Hanover, Heaven's Door, Highest Peak, Scream And Shout, Shake It Cerry, Vanity Matters and Yoga.

Yoga is a late-developing gal that shares the Jimmy Takter tag with Shake It Cerry.

Heaven's Door has been competitive with "Cerry" and others in the division.

Mr Lindy will go a good mile against Cerry but she is hard to back as an upset.

Scream And Shout has awoken a bit and may be second best here if she puts her all into it.

So we are left, again, with the two Takter giants, Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry. Post position won't matter and neither will drivers (Cerry's driver Ron Pierce is always saying after she wins that he just goes along for the ride).

The futurities may break speed records for either of the top two but the stakes won't make history for public opinion: the top two are the tops.

Time of the season

It's time for the countdown, the Breeders Crown Countdown, the exclusive blog that will coordinate with our harness blog at TwinSpires.com and the Hambletonian Society to find great wagering opportunities for "Crown" eligibles as they race their ways to the Crown finals.

The 2014 Breeders Crown will take place at the Meadowlands and be raced over two nights in November, with the divisional races divided into a four-race block of distaff races on Friday (Nov. 21) and the remaining eight finals races held Saturday (Nov. 22).

The $500,000 Breeders Crown Trot and the Pace for three-year-old fillies, and a pair of $250,000 Crowns for mare pacers and trotters will be raced on Friday night. All four $500,000 two-year-old events, the $500,000 soph-colt pace and trot and the $400,000 Crown Pace and $500,000 Crown Trot will be raced on Saturday night.

Tom Charters, president of The Hambletonian Society, which owns and administrates the series, is familiar with the demands of staging the event at rotating host tracks, as well as the Society’s flexibility in presenting the event.

“The Breeders Crown has been conducted in just about every format -- single races, blocks of races, all twelve races on one night -- and we try always to be sensitive to host track parameters while still getting the most 'bang' out of the event in regard to publicity, TV and promotions,” said Charters. “The Meadowlands has been home to many of harness racing’s most important events over the past thirty years. We look forward to the return of the Breeders Crown under Jeff Gural's management and especially look forward to the new facility."

The Meadowlands  has hosted 67 Breeders Crown races -- more than any other racetrack -- and in 2014 will celebrate 30 years of Breeders Crown history.

This season we will be watching the top horses in the divisions, a crew of talent that has been, mostly competitive.

There's Sweet Lou, the monstrous steed that has all the Free-For-All pacers anything but free to beat him. Sebastian K, the older trotter and former Horse of the Year in Sweden, who has dominated his division but will have to be supplemented if he is to go for a Crown win.

Hambletonian-winner Trixton and Jimmy Takter's other dynamos Father Patrick and Nuncio, may meet one another again as they head for the soph-colt Crown.

There are bound to be others, unusual suspects, if you will, that are having a better second half of the season than the first and readying to make noise against the season's popular names. And still others can buy into Crown races, as supplements.

Big stakes are still on the agenda in the months leading to November's end, so watch the TwinSpires harness blog and the link to this exclusive blog for special attention to races including Crown probables and great wagering promise.

The Breeders Crown series has crowned champions in every division for trotters and pacers and has been the deciding factor in Horse of the Year honors since 1984. More than $164 million in purse money has been disbursed over 346 events.

Stalwart seniors tough it out in four finals

This Saturday at Pocono Downs the Breeders Crown the older sets co-star in the dozen finals for the 2013 championship program. The main TwinSpires harness blog brings you here for the analysis of this quartet. Here are the fields, along with comments for each horse, followed by our two suggested top contenders not necessarily in order of preference.

$250,000 Mares Open Trot
Post - Horse
1 – Maven – She is the obvious public choice and has done best in her division all year.
2 - Check Me Out – Last season Maven could not keep up with this gorgeous gal. This season things have reversed, except her elim was a sign of maturity she hasn’t shown while trying to make her four-year-old season a success.
3 - Bax Of Life – She just cannot beat these under the usual circumstances and probably won’t tonight, either.
4 – Unefoisdanmavie – Her elim was super. She was second over, made up plenty of ground and closed to beat two inside of her.
5 – Dorsay – Her breaking issues were gone in the elim but she was short and that is disturbing.
6 - Real Babe – A suck-a-long type that should not cause much trouble.
7 - Beatgoeson Hanover – This one needs a trip and a speed duel in front, neither likely to accommodate her here.
8 - Cedar Dove – Few scenarios offer evidence she will win.
9 - Cowgirl Hall – She had promise but her elim was flat.
AE1 - Win Missy B – She showed a ton of speed coming back from a layoff, needed that race and could be considered but she most likely will not get into the race.
AE2 - Mystical Starlight – It would be luck to get into the race and she would need a lot more to win it.

Check Me Out; Unefoisdansmavie; Maven

$500,000 Open Pace
Post - Horse
1 - Clear Vision – He has gotten better as the season waned but won’t be the best in time to win this.
2 - Foiled Again – He won the elim strongly but his in-and-out form this season makes him vulnerable.
3 - Golden Receiver – He never regained the power he had at the beginning of the season and did not impress us in his elim but he has a history of surprising wake-up miles.
4 - Modern Legend – This guy could be peaking at the right time. He raced a tougher trip than the winner last week, passing three while closing to be best of the rest.
5 - Pet Rock – He is always in it and with the week off (from his bye) he could be the strongest when the smoke has cleared.
6 - Warrawee Needy – At best he was a contender all year and never a strong threat. One great race does not a season make, so to speak.
7 - Michaels Power – Why is he even in this race? He was never a first-notch contender.
8 - Bolt The Duer – He will strike when opportunity knocks and some other horse does all the work through the mile. That scenario will not present itself here.
9 - Sweet Lou – He fights and can win either way but it looks like he will be in traffic and that won’t do his talent any justice.
AE1 - Bettors Edge – There is little chance he will be in it and then he will have to rely on a speed duel to close.
AE2 - A Rocknroll Dance – What the hell happened to him last week? He may have emptied his tank of comeback fuel that got him back into the divisional picture late.

Modern Legend; Pet Rock; Golden Receiver

$300,000 Open Mares Pace
Post - Horse
1 – Rocklamation – We have been with her for all of her high-paying wins but we don’t feel this will be one of them.
2 – Anndrovette – She won off of a great trip and was one of the rare horses to close on the inside she but may not get such a journey this week.
3 - Economy Terror – She has been dull all season and was no bargain in the elim.
4 - Swinging Beauty – We liked her in the elim but she couldn’t get going in a great spot behind a duel so she seems no threat.
5 - Monkey On My Wheel – She was just nabbed by Anndrovette and deserves the call to be a few steps better than the others now. She was improving every week since coming back into action and may be looking at a strong winter campaign.
6 - Feeling You – She may be involved because she is good and you can toss out her elim but we don’t think she will win it.
7 – Shelliscape – There was never any real threat from her in this division.
8 – Camille – Her season appears over already, she makes no noise when the going is silent.
9 - Drop The Ball – She will get some action but may have to work too hard for her own good from this post.
AE1 - Krispy Apple – There is no worry she will upset if she gets in it.
AE2 - Ooh Bad Shark – This one has no bite, if you will excuse the pun.

Monkey On My Wheel; Rocklamation; Anndrovette

$600,000 Open Trot
Post - Horse
1 - Market Share – It looked early like the 2012 Hambo winner was going to dominate but it was a rash forecast. We don’t feel he is seasoned enough yet.
2 - Wishing Stone – This guy is always a threat and has beaten them all more than once.
3 - My MVP – There seems no argument that he would perform his best here and topple the likes of this group.
4 – Guccio – Perhaps next year he will be a dynamo but that scourge will probably not begin in this race.
5 – Intimidate – He appears ready to try another late-season stroll in the limelight but we think he is over his head.
6 - Mister Herbie – Can we ever toss out this monstrous guy who, though inconsistent as a winner, always finds a way to be in it.
7 - Arch Madness – The Red Mile rumbled from his performances and he has his favorite driver-trainer at the throttle. We expect a very big mile.
8 - Uncle Peter – The strength at the end of the mile will be with him and the 7 horse because they are simply in the best shape of the lot coming into this event.
9 – Sevruga – He may not care to be wide for two turns and once he puts in gear that is what he may have to tolerate to win.

Arch Madness; Uncle Peter; Mister Herbie

The Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog have presented this exclusive look at great betting races that included eligibles weekly. The archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site.

 

Young guns launch elim weekend at Pocono

This Friday, Oct. 11, at Pocono Downs the Breeders Crown elims for frosh filly trotters and frosh filly pacers each have a pair of divisions presented, as well as a single mile for the frosh colt trotters. In the multi-divisions the top four finishers return for the Oct. 19 finals, while the single heat offers the top seven a shot at the two byes.

The colt trotters will battle to meet Credit Fashion and Don Dorado in the final and Father Patrick, undeniable division leader, leads them. He makes his start from post 9 and may have only one serious contender in the returning-to-action Nuncio, who has chased him in major affairs over the summer. These two could explain the exacta, with a topple of “Patrick” if Nuncio has gotten a bit sharper and gets a step or two advantage here.

Next is a shot at another outsider, Demanding Sam. She is in from Canada and a Champlain winner there, coming from this circuit where she raced well against similar. She won’t win off the top but she will be close enough to shimmy up the open stretch if they get winded from fast early fractions, which looks the case.

The first filly pacer elim features a gal that may be headed for sophomore stardom. Ali Blue is a game youngster, making mature moves with an ability to quickly fix a mistake. She may be a good price here, getting post 7 and being on the outside of some others that will attract a few bucks.

The last of the filly double elim package should be an easy spin for Precocious Beauty. She gets the inside and has no reason not to win her eighth of nine starts. She has not been beaten since August.

There are no eliminations necessary for the $500,soph-filly pace or the  $600,000 Open Trot.

I Luv The Nitelife, the undisputed soph- filly pacing leader, will start from post 7 in her division’s final; Somwherovrarainbow leaves from post eight. Shebestingin, who on paced the fastest mile in history by a female pacer when she won a division of the Glen Garnsey Memorial in 1:47 at The Red Mile, drew post 5. 

 

The frosh filly trotters start off with a division that may spark a few opinions on which gal is best. We like the chances of Goddess, who won a Kindergarten Stakes easily from the outside three back and lost her next two with a few excuses. She will be the outside contender and worth the price we expect.

 

Follow the Breeders Crown at Pocono Downs here at the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site.

 

Glamour groups ride again; contenders bracing for ‘Crown’ elims

(BC) = Breeders Crown eligible

 

Sunday, Oct. 6, many historic victories of the past at The Red Mile come to mind for harness racing buffs. The Kentucky Futurity has been a main event since its inception in 1893. It’s an open race for trotting sophomores, colts and fillies, supported by a sister event, the futurity solely for fillies and uses a heats-format. 

 

The champions (winning two heats) have been mostly favorites and record-book names (Peter The Great, Super Bowl, Peace Corps, Deweycheatumnhowe, Donato Hanover, Muscle Hill, etcetera) but the heats have produced some strong win prices, usually delivered by winners whose names are long forgotten. The 2014 edition looms boldly and the search for defeating the early choice—Royalty For Life (BC-RC Royalty)—ensues.

Fourteen colts have entered into the main event, all colts, with each heat of seven worth $79,050.

The first heat finds Royalty For Life facing far less than he defeated in the Hambletonian, though a major foe, Master Of Law, not eligible for the “Crown,” is here to try to beat him once more. It seems unlikely that Royalty For Life won’t handle this bunch and be ready to take on the second heat and win the title. He will make it to round two in any case so to get any dollars out of this heat you will have to key him with unlikely scenarios.

Those would include Master Of Law third or out of the money entirely. Certainly Punxsutawney (BC-Glidemaster) may race well enough to be second, as should Deadliest Catch (BC-Chocolatier), who is our personal favorite to be second (the crowd should dismiss him).

Spider Blue Chip (BC-Andover Hall) should get a great deal of the win pool under his number but we are still looking at the overlay possibilities of Lindy’s Tru Grit (BC-Cantab Hall). We liked him last week and the crowd hated him (29-1) and he finished second to Your So Vain (BC-Donato Hanover), who is in this field and will be bet heavily as well as Spider Blue Chip. This is a good upset possibility and worthy of a shot and worthy of inclusion in all exotics.

The final will play itself out and probably go to Royalty For Life but we remain more interested in the heats. 

Nine fillies will race twice (barring any scratches) and we like one of them winning both of the heats and taking the filly championship. Oddly enough, our choice, which we feel may offer a decent price at least in the first heat, is a non-eligible. Classic Martine. Her recent races are sterling examples of being in great shape to topple the likes of the obvious public choices. Any great price on her will be offered in heat one, so we will take our shot with her where she may promise the highest price.

The Pocono Publicity Department released news on some eligibles that have prepped at the track with qualifiers on Oct. 3. 

 

Free-for-all pacing millionaires Warrawee Needy (BC-E Dee’s Cam) and Razzle Dazzle (BC-Real Desire) put on a dazzling show around the five-eighths mile track hosting the Breeders Crown elims on Oct. 11 and Oct. 12 and the finals on Oct. 19. Warrawee Needy got to Razzle Dazzle in a battle to the finish, a 1:50 mile. 

 

Warrawee Needy has been in Pennsylvania for two weeks and qualified last week in 1:52 last Thursday.  Razzle Dazzle has been absent from the racetrack for over two months. Warrawee Needy is now trained by Mark Ford. 

 

The magnificent soph-filly pacer, I Luv The Nitelife (BC-Rocknroll Hanover), who skipped racing at Lexington, defeated her qualifying field by 4 lengths for trainer Chris Ryder in 1:52.2. She is no stranger to Pocono, having won the James Lynch Final and the Valley Forge in 2013. 

 

Witnesses agreed that perhaps the most impressive mile of the day, when measured to divisional standards, was the 1:55.1 victory of the freshman trotting gelding Don Dorado (BC-Donato Hanover) for trainer Robert Baggitt, Jr. Don Dorado recently won the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes’ division.

 

Smilin Eli (BC-Muscles Yankee), still a strong contender amont the sophomore trotting colts, took the shortest way home to win his qualifier in 1:53.3 for trainer David M. Smith. And two-year-old pacing filly Rockincam Park (BC-Rocknroll Hanover) was untroubled on the lead in a 1:54 win for trainer Ron Coyne, Jr. 

 

Follow major BC hopefuls on their road to the October Breeders Crown at Pocono Downs at the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site.

 

Senior Trot Theater

Vernon Downs hosts a pair of exceptional $200,000-plus stakes fields on Friday, Sept. 6 with the Muscle Hill Trot for mares and the Credit Winner for males.

This is two group of hopefuls that have experience and resilience.

The Credit Winner cast is tough from inside post to outside post, presenting a myriad of scenarios, including a front-bias that would give any early foot a distinct advantage (and there is plenty of it here).

Post, horse (BC-eligible sire)

1. Arch Madness (Balanced Image)
2. My MVP (Cantab Hall)
3. Market Share (Revenue S)
4. Sevruga (SJ’s Caviar)
5. Wishing Stone (Conway Hall)
6. Guccio (Yankee Glide)
7. Intimidate (Justice Hall)
8. Mister Herbie (Here Comes Herbie)

A big bargain here could be Mister Herbie, whose post and unpopularity will combine to bring his odds to overlay status. The Market Share fan club has been disappointed and Wishing Stone has once again shown his revenge to disloyal backers and Arch Madness shows signs like he is on the wane, with his best days behind him.

But Mister Herbie has still to peak as an elder statesman of this precociously global division. It would not surprise us if the crowd made him a fourth or fifth choice; in fact, it would thrill us.

The Muscle Hill is adorned with speedy matures:

Post, horse, (BC-eligible sire)

1. Beatgoeson Hanover (Andover Hall)
2. Intense America (Taurus Dream)
3. Pembroke Heat Wave (Like A Prayer)
4. Cedar Dove (Andover Hall)
5. Real Babe (Donato Hanover)
6. Maven (Glidemaster)
7. Personal Style (Yankee Glide)
8. Bax Of Life (Windsong’s Legacy)
9. D’orsay (Yankee Glide)
10. Check Me Out (Donato Hanover)

Bound to attract a lot of money is Beatgoeson Hanoer, last year’s event winner and coming into this after a world-record win at Pocono (1:51.4). But that recent speed trip was a cover trip and it cannot be trusted as a raw number.

The entry of Maven and D’orsay is the serious threat here, though our particular focus goes on the latter. Coupled or not, this is the perfect place for D’orsey to storm to the top and take the field chasing her all the way. The 9 hole would have once again raised her odds to the height we caught her floating on Hambo day. As well, Maven may try to steal it from the top, so getting both of them with one wager is quite a bargain.

The others can all be considered one way or another. Check Me Out is here and so is Personal Style, both capable of taking advantage of a speed duel, as well as becoming involved in one. Making it tougher is Bax Of Life, always a longshot threat, Cedar Dove and Pembroke Heat Wave.

Follow major BC hopefuls on their road to the October Breeders Crown at Pocono Downs at the Breeders Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian Society web site.

 

‘Zweig’ miles bring back top soph trotters and new additions

Here they are again, unconvinced just which one will rule this season. The soph-colt trotters battle again, this time at Vernon on Aug. 25 in the $360,000 Dr. Harry M. Zweig Memorial.

Hambo-champ Royalty For Life is on the outside again, after dueling himself out of contention on the three turns of Pocono last week. It is better to suspect the same kind of duel, with Smilin Eli, will not develop here. Instead, perhaps we may count on some shuffling, all of which could give the best last strides to Aperfectyankee.

Corky will be on fire early and Pine Credit will look to become involved, along with Royalty For Life and Smilin Eli seeking position and perhaps taking and re-taking leads.

Last week, as Spider Blue Chip took advantage of the duel and shook loose late to win the Colonial, Aperfectyankee was flying but could only get fourth. Aperfectyankee, every bit as good as the classiest of this division, needs this kind of activity while in a good spot to fire. Post 2 may be the place. He certainly will be an overlay, as he continues to be among his ilk.

The $150,000 Zweig for the fillies is missing the best of the lot, Bee A Magician, so a tight battle may ensue. With Frau Blucher returning after some rest but getting the 9 hole and To Dream On also on the outside, this looks like another good chance for Mistery Woman to take flight. Look also for an aggressive Shared Past to become involved, she is  a danger to upset.

A $75,000 consolation for the colts features some unfamiliar names among the stakes group of this division. Perhaps another shocker is in the works with Hamdalla, from upset specialist trainer Riina Rekila. She exploded at Pocono last year with a relatively unknown and she drove. Here, she uses John Campbell and as the mystery factor may be worth a shot at a big price.

The $40,000 consolation for the fillies may be a simple romp for Miss Steele, who has been racing well against better and may fool the crowd into a big price considering her poor win record. The Millers will have her raring to go here, in a field that boasts few wins and bows to Miss Steele’s earnings this season.

Read the result stories at Hambletonian Society's Breeders Crown archive and get your account to bet at TwinSpires.

Sophomores scuffle, mares’ malaise

Breeders Crown action continues with eliminations for the three-year-old colt and filly pacers, three-year-old colt trotters and the open mare trotters.  

Two eliminations will be contested for the three-year-old filly pacers.  

The first looks to be a battle between American Jewel and Economy Terror, though we take a look at their underdog rivals.  

Ramalama has shown significant improvement within the last few months. She raced very well on the New York Sires Stakes circuit, showing she was capable of challenging these fillies at Lexington during the Grand Circuit meeting.  

The other value play in here is Bettor B Lucky. She has been on a slight layoff, skipping The Red Mile and qualifying at Freehold. She is fresher than these other fillies and could put on quite a show in this event.  

The second elimination favorite, Romantic Moment, drew the far outside and gives rivals to her inside a decent shot.  

We will take Handsoffmycookie. She has not raced against the top fillies since last year’s Breeders Crown but has gotten the luck of fast miles and tough rivalries in this division to tire some of the top filly foes. She should be very sharp returning to top company this week.  

The three-year-old colt trotters will also contest two eliminations.  

Little Brown Fox headlines the first group and is the only horse in this field to have recently raced with the top trotters. Our mind, on the other hand, is concentrated upon Prestidigitator.  

The Kadabra son, who has scored for us this year and was our unsuccessful Hambletonian choice, has a hometown advantage in Toronto, as he is a regular on this circuit. He draws into the weaker of two elims and should be a great value wager against Little Brown Fox, who is arguably as good as the top dog, Market Choice, on any given day. 

Market Share dominates the second elimination for the glamour-boy trotters. If you are ready to bet against Market Share, calm down. He’ll likely romp in the elim at a poor price (even low-priced overlays can be over bet). He could be vulnerable in the final based on the other 14 trotters performances this week.  

The final group of sophomore eliminations will feature three-year-old colt pacers.  

Thinking Out Loud and Bettor’s Edge will likely be heavy betting interests in the first elim. We went to their outside and took Hillbilly Hanover to win this elimination.  

He produced a stunning effort in the Tattersalls Pace, racing first over into the far turn and nearly passing Sweet Lou at the wire. This colt has been improving recently and is maturing late in the season, which is a key sign to look for in a Breeders Crown upset.  

The second chapter attracts top names—A Rocknroll Dance, Michaels Power and Sweet Lou among them. Sweet Lou has shown improvement but remains suspect to coming up short, Michaels Power, a supplement, has always been vulnerable among his piers and A Rocknroll Dance is recovering from throat surgery. 

Mel Mara looks to be the “now” horse and the value wager. Coming off a victory versus Michaels Power, Mel Mara came back onto the stakes scene with a victory in the Bluegrass Stakes at The Red Mile. He returned a week later and finished a strong fourth in the Tattersalls Pace. The public may ignore him this week because of the brand names racing around him but he should provide tough competition against the top pacers.

The final elim scheduled for Saturday is for the Open Mare Trot field.

Two horses caught our eye in this wide-open division, Tamla Celeber S and Beatgoeson Hanover.

Tamla Celeber S had two strong starts in America, one in the Pride In Progress and the other in the Allerage. Though she was disappointing in the Allerage, she ships up north this week and should may use herself up early like she did in those two miles, resulting in a powerful mile.

Beatgoeson Hanover is coming off of a great race in the Allerage. She was a closing third, behind Frenchfriesnvinegar. She draws the rail and will likely be in the mix early and should provide value in this contest.

See the TwinSpires blog for more Breeders Crown action and news and contacts for next week’s single-night finals program.

Back to the ‘Futurity’

The historic Kentucky Futurity and its sister event for fillies only are historic heat-racing events, so, as we are approaching the events as we usually do, concentrating on the heat divisions for our plays. May you have all the luck you need, no less get a good price, in the second heat.

In the first elim heat there are only six going.

Gym Tan Laundry has not lived up to our expectations after winning in Canada and proving we weren’t following him for nothing. That disappointment and the one after that puts him, still, as a 5-2 morning-line co-choice in this small field, which is far too little for us to become involved.

Little Brown Fox is certainly capable of wiring this bunch but he, too, has been wagered to death and coming up short to long-priced colts like Money On My Mind (see elim two).

This leaves us only one genuine upset contender in Another Amaretto. We have to assume that he will be the fourth choice, which is the same in the pecking order of the morning line. At 9-2 among these, especially with Archangel probably eating up the fractions with “Fox,” the short field could make those odds worth it.

Seven go in the second $114,300 elim heat, lead in the morning line (ML) by Guccio. We had him last week, though we expected a bit more of a win price when we made the call, but here we do not agree with the ML in terms of chances.

Tony Alagna has had My MVP in relentless pursuit of his division’s foes and picked up the third spot in the Hambletonian final and his elim. He is much better on a two-turn stage than shorter ovals and last week he already proved that he might be able to win staying closer to the top, without the mighty charge that allowed him to cash many checks.
 

Futurity Fillies

The first of the two elim heats has, in our opinion, a poor favorite in Chilitodayhottamale. She has not proven to be on a roll, even though last week she embraced The Red Mile surface with fire.

We are forced to look closely at Oasis Dream as the upset contender based on great performances against the aforementioned “Chili” and in the Buckette, where she was the dead-on choice but was short to Canadian Justice (the closer and here in post 2) and our huge longshot Fancy.

Superstar Hanover will get play along with Chili, giving“Oasis” more value.

In the second elim heat we are going to attempt a bold move by taking Bluff over Check Me Out. There is no way for us to incite an upset but Bluff has been getting better and Check Me Out comes into this on the wings of a very long campaign that could begin to wilt at any time, regardless of her domination over this division or the fact that her mentor Ray Schnittker said she will not race in the second heat (he is against heat racing). Still, she could be a victim of more aggressiveness that allows her to be nosed or headed and this may be a good time to catch that scenario, especially since she is more concerned with the Breeders Crown.

Last week Bluff lost, mostly due to a bad step at the start. She still wound up gaining ground to be third at a strongly supported 7-5. She has only to improve as she heads towards mare status.

Stalwart Seniors

Older pacers and trotters go in Allerage Farm features.

The first is for pacing mares and once again Drop The Ball is the early choice on the ML. However, her critical stop from scorched fractions last time, when we beat her with 23-1 Rocklamation, leaves her suspect in our book.

We feel Ginger And Fred has been racing better than her odds since August and can carefully stalk the hot pace here, getting enough real estate late to win as well as thwart the closing Rocklamation.

Next, the older trotting horses, six of the best, will shuffle and struggle, most likely trying to beat Chapter Seven. Linda Toscano’s monstrous four-year-old continues to beat older and here he has to deal with at least four others that are legitimate foes.

Wishing Stone is back from his oversea journeys where he has been productive against the best in European trotting. He is fresh and, of course, he is a veteran of the track, where he won the Kentucky Futurity at three in 2010.

He could be dismissed based on all the facts that should make him a strong contender. That is, the crowd is more aware of “Seven” and Mister Herbie in location and recency and Arch Madness and Hot Shot Blue Chip will share some win money. This leaves Wishing Stone in a probable overlay spot, one which can easily lure our wager.

The mare trotters are next, with Cedar Dove again at the head of the ML line. But this is a very tightly matched bunch and a personal odds line that could be written accurately would go through many drafts. We wish to pass.

The horse pace presents the usual suspects, each guilty of being courageously competitive all season. With Betterthancheddar pulled from the event and in question for the Breeders Crown, we see little reason not to hand this one over to Golden Receiver.

He is arguably the best of the division this season, if only by a mere point, and if he lives up to his ML at 9-2, which is the third choice, he is certainly worth backing.

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Kentucky conflicts at Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs presents a few events with Breeders Crown hopefuls in freshmen divisions. Filly pacers highlight the Kentucky Stallion Management stakes, while colts go in splits of The Elevation, all on the Sept. 15 program. 

The Elevation’s first division hosts six with a purse of $89,600.  

From the 6 hole, He Rocks The Moon is from the red-hot Tony Alegna barn and one of three sired by Rocknroll Hanover. He has won two of six starts in his first season of pacing and should take to the Indiana mile well after taking a mark of 1:53 on a five-eighths track.  

The second Elevation field features seven and is worth $90,600.  

Raise The Gin was sixth in an Indiana Sires Stakes Final here last week but can’t be faulted for that. The seven-for-10 winner by Always A Virgin has enough speed to take a shot at dominating the other six here if he leaves with the kind of power his sire often demonstrated.  

The filly pacers go first in the $118500 Kentuckiana Stallion Management stake, division one. 

The Somebeachsomewhere-daughter from post 1, Exotic Beach, is still a maiden but there is no reason she cannot change that status in this event. She is worth the shot at a price. Her qualifier mark will turn bettors off, no doubt, and the obvious Always About Katey should get favorite status with five of six wins on her side. 

The second Kentuckiana split offers $117,250, with seven on the gate. 

Nikki Beach, another Somebeachsomewhere product, has been racing with a lot better and should be among the top three on the board, hopefully the second or third behind Ohmybelle and Donna Lee.    

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.