Battlefield Breeders Crown: The Older Divisions

The Breeders Crown series at Woodbine Racetrack on Oct. 27 includes four-year-olds and up from both sexes and gaits: The Mare Trot, the Open Trot (males), the Open Mare Pace and the Open Pace (one mare against males).

Read all of the archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Along with our TwinSpires blog, here is an analysis for those events, concentrating on our suggested contenders that we feel are worthy overlays or key winners due to their overwhelming chances of winning the event.

The valued contenders

The Open Mare Trot launches the series Saturday. This group includes Autumn Escapade, a friend of our betting bankroll since she began her campaign as a mare. Canada has been a healthy venue for her over the years. This season she spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania, with top mares at Pocono, and only won a single race.

But her Breeders Crown elim was impressive, some proof that she is returning to familiar territory where she excelled. She got a great spot early in that race and then became buried by three-quarters. She managed to shake free from foes on both sides and use a strong brush to get second while still charging.

A threat to her and the favorites will be Bax Of Life. She is a must for exotics. Her elim was powerful. She was extra game leaving from post 10 and held on with grace to get fourth after a long journey.

The Open Trot is a small field, which includes overseas champion Commander Crowe but presents a major hero of the division this year, Chapter Seven.

A good reason why Chapter Seven has become the unlikely leader of this group is that he is only a four-year-old. Maturing at the end of a sophomore season that presented five losses in 10 starts against a particularly talented crop (including Daylon Magician and Mister Herbie, also in this field), he came back to defeat older and more experienced steeds at four with regularity.

Beating him in this short field will be a chore, though the invader offers more hope than value. Commander Crowe has literally been all over the map in Europe and has made over a $1.5 million in 2012.

All you can hope for to dig up an upset has to do with Hot Shot Blue Chip. He is the only one here that has defied the others with speed and success, not counting “Crowe.” I wouldn’t expect much from such an upset, as the size of this field give the edge to Chapter Seven but if we need to go out on a limb for a price, Hot Shot Blue Chip gets our support.

The Open Mare Pace offers the talents of a mare that we began to support mid season who has done so well her connections bring her into this fray via supplement money, which is always an investment in faith. She is Rebeka Bayama and last week she won in a “Crown” sideshow event for her division, scorching the oval in 1:48.4.  

Rebeka Bayama is 3-1 on the morning line but will still offer some value, as Drop The Ball should get the bettors’ bulk of win money and last year’s winner, Anndrovette, is bound to pick up heavy support, especially being on the inside of the two mentioned.  

Closing the event for 2012 is the charge of the heavy brigade, so to speak, the stalwart elder pacing males in the Open Pace. Only this year a brave mare takes on the boys. She is Put On A Show. She is up against tons of iron, so to speak, and although she wants to pace into history by doing what no mare has done before in this series, we don’t feel she is up to the task.

 

Nor do we see a repeat in last year’s Bettor Sweet victory. Certainly the seven-year-old will be offering far less in odds than last season when he won as an outsider. That alone turns us off. However, we like the horse that last beat him, Golden Receiver. 

Though Golden Receiver defeated Bettor Sweet at Pocono Downs and then lost to him at The Red Mile and in a Woodbine Open prep for this event, this pacer has remarkable resilience and has come back strong throughout the season after displaying disappointing miles. He will certainly be a decent price among this group, which includes mega-money-maker Foiled Again and Hypnotic Blue Chip, who came back from retirement to swarm through fields of older pacers. 

The older divisions always make for challenging handicapping, as throughout the stakes season there is rarely a dominating figure. Aside from Chapter Seven in the Open Trot, no other horse or mare on either gait has been as reliable as his or her odds indicated.

 

This is a good reason for our choices, which as usual stand out from the mainstream-handicapping crowd. Any one can make a good case for most of these entries, which opens the realm of possibilities for those of us seeking the true overlay. The cases we are making become more acceptable under the circumstances.

Post time for the Breeders Crown finals on Saturday, Oct. 27 will be a special early post of 6:30 p.m. [EDT]. The finals will be followed live on TwinSpires @FrankCotolo and @RayCotolo and @TwinSpires.

Read all of the archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Sophomores scuffle, mares’ malaise

Breeders Crown action continues with eliminations for the three-year-old colt and filly pacers, three-year-old colt trotters and the open mare trotters.  

Two eliminations will be contested for the three-year-old filly pacers.  

The first looks to be a battle between American Jewel and Economy Terror, though we take a look at their underdog rivals.  

Ramalama has shown significant improvement within the last few months. She raced very well on the New York Sires Stakes circuit, showing she was capable of challenging these fillies at Lexington during the Grand Circuit meeting.  

The other value play in here is Bettor B Lucky. She has been on a slight layoff, skipping The Red Mile and qualifying at Freehold. She is fresher than these other fillies and could put on quite a show in this event.  

The second elimination favorite, Romantic Moment, drew the far outside and gives rivals to her inside a decent shot.  

We will take Handsoffmycookie. She has not raced against the top fillies since last year’s Breeders Crown but has gotten the luck of fast miles and tough rivalries in this division to tire some of the top filly foes. She should be very sharp returning to top company this week.  

The three-year-old colt trotters will also contest two eliminations.  

Little Brown Fox headlines the first group and is the only horse in this field to have recently raced with the top trotters. Our mind, on the other hand, is concentrated upon Prestidigitator.  

The Kadabra son, who has scored for us this year and was our unsuccessful Hambletonian choice, has a hometown advantage in Toronto, as he is a regular on this circuit. He draws into the weaker of two elims and should be a great value wager against Little Brown Fox, who is arguably as good as the top dog, Market Choice, on any given day. 

Market Share dominates the second elimination for the glamour-boy trotters. If you are ready to bet against Market Share, calm down. He’ll likely romp in the elim at a poor price (even low-priced overlays can be over bet). He could be vulnerable in the final based on the other 14 trotters performances this week.  

The final group of sophomore eliminations will feature three-year-old colt pacers.  

Thinking Out Loud and Bettor’s Edge will likely be heavy betting interests in the first elim. We went to their outside and took Hillbilly Hanover to win this elimination.  

He produced a stunning effort in the Tattersalls Pace, racing first over into the far turn and nearly passing Sweet Lou at the wire. This colt has been improving recently and is maturing late in the season, which is a key sign to look for in a Breeders Crown upset.  

The second chapter attracts top names—A Rocknroll Dance, Michaels Power and Sweet Lou among them. Sweet Lou has shown improvement but remains suspect to coming up short, Michaels Power, a supplement, has always been vulnerable among his piers and A Rocknroll Dance is recovering from throat surgery. 

Mel Mara looks to be the “now” horse and the value wager. Coming off a victory versus Michaels Power, Mel Mara came back onto the stakes scene with a victory in the Bluegrass Stakes at The Red Mile. He returned a week later and finished a strong fourth in the Tattersalls Pace. The public may ignore him this week because of the brand names racing around him but he should provide tough competition against the top pacers.

The final elim scheduled for Saturday is for the Open Mare Trot field.

Two horses caught our eye in this wide-open division, Tamla Celeber S and Beatgoeson Hanover.

Tamla Celeber S had two strong starts in America, one in the Pride In Progress and the other in the Allerage. Though she was disappointing in the Allerage, she ships up north this week and should may use herself up early like she did in those two miles, resulting in a powerful mile.

Beatgoeson Hanover is coming off of a great race in the Allerage. She was a closing third, behind Frenchfriesnvinegar. She draws the rail and will likely be in the mix early and should provide value in this contest.

See the TwinSpires blog for more Breeders Crown action and news and contacts for next week’s single-night finals program.

Northern lights: best of all divisions aim for Woodbine

The time has come for the connections of horses in all divisions to decide about racing in the Breeders Crown series Woodbine Racetrack. This means, aside from horses already eligible, decisions need to be made on foreign invitees and supplemental entries. 

The race program for the finals is Saturday, Oct. 27 in Toronto, Canada.  

There are no supplements for two-year-olds, so only eligibles will race. Meanwhile, all sophomores wanting to take part will cost their connections $62,500. The same price is listed for the Open Pace, while the Open Trot additions will cost $75,000, the Mare Pace fee is $37,500 and the Mare Trot fee is $31,250.  

Horses eligible to the Breeders Crown events have to officially enter by 10:30 a.m., Tuesday, Oct. 16.  

Eliminations for all two-year-olds, if needed, are on the Friday, Oct. 19program, while the three-year-old and open eliminations, if needed, are on the Saturday, Oct. 20 program, each with a post time of 7:30 p.m. 

The connections of elim winners get to choose their post position for the finals.

Post time for the Breeders Crown finals on Saturday, Oct. 27 will be a special early post of 6:30 p.m. [EDT]. The finals will be followed live on TwinSpires @FrankCotolo and @RayCotolo and @TwinSpires.

Who’s who?

It is still up in the air if Michael’s Power will supplement to the big event, the soph-colt pace. The decision must be made this weekend and the money, $62,500, must be delivered. 

Driver Scott Zeron has said, “Everyone wants to know what is next for Michael’s Power [after his Flamboro race on Oct. 13].”  

Perhaps other news in the division will inspire Michael’s Power’s connections? 

For instance, Bolt The Duer won’t be in the field. His connections have decided the colt isn’t up to it and are quoted as saying he “just wasn’t right.”  

As well, the fate of A Rocknroll Dance in the glamour-boy pacing “Crown” division is pending. A Rocknroll Dance will be going for throat surgery, according to sources, and may not be ready for the Crown cavalcade. Recently, A Rocknroll Dance has been disappointing, moreso than his post-position excuses can explain. The surgery indicates what many suspected, that something was off since he last made his usual charge in a stakes event.  

Put On A Show heads for Toronto off of an Oct. 9 race that broke the Pocono Downs track record for older pacing mares when she won in 1:49. The Chris Ryder-trained mare is wound tight for the Crown, having won 11 of 20 races this season with lifetime earnings of over $2.3 million.  

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Cane Pace looming; Grand Circuit at Mohawk features primary players

The Big ‘Dance’ Rocks The Cane

Click here for Cane Pace essay, analysis ...

On Friday, Aug. 31, frosh-colt trotters battle for big money in the Champlain Stakes at Mohawk, part of the big Grand Circuit weekend (see TwinSpires blog for analysis of other major events). 

The first split is worth $140,914, the kind of purse most of these youngsters hope to see again as their careers ensue.  

Jim Oscarsson’s Aperfectyankee, who we gave you in the Peter Haughton and who won to become the 2013 Hambletonian future-book choice, is here and looking terrific; too good, in fact, to do anything but key in an exacta. There could be a decent return using Broadway Prince second. This developing youngster has good reason to be in this group and may be on his way to being a nemesis to the top choice into their soph seasons.  

The next split for the same division is worth $138,915 and Cool Victory could be the upset contender at a price. Although he has some breaking issues, he has done well despite the jumps and is well bred enough to improve once those young quirks are handled.  

Sept. 1 at Mohawk delivers some of our glamour-boy trotting pals from the Hambletonian Trail (cartoon by Thom Pye).  

The single split is worth $246,521 and we are all over Little Brown Fox.  

Hometown favorite Knows Nothing, who we beat last week with Presdigitator, also in this field, will get plenty of support, leaving “Fox” with a fair price. His loss to Googoo Gaagaa and Market Share was mainly a loss to the latter, who got a better trip while Fox cut the fractions.  

“Gaagaa” is not here and we feel Fox is much better than Knows Nothing on an even keel, so we should take advantage of the home-fans’ bias. 

At Pocono on Sept. 1 Pennsylvania Sires Stakes finals are worth $200,000. 

For top filly trotter Check Me Out, the soph-filly trot conclusion should be an afterthought. A pass is our choice. 

Soph-filly pacers bring us back to Economy Terror for a comeback off of a dull effort last week. She should be raring to go against this tepid group. 

More Hambo alumni from this season adorn the soph-colt trot final. My Mvp could continue to show great form now that his great form is winning him races. Frost Bites K may have some trouble from post 8 but demands attention in exotics. 

Finally, the soph-colt pace is a hometown showcase for Sweet Lou. He is the champ of the state-bred’s division and doesn’t have much to go up against here for some easy money—for him, that is, because bettors will be offered nothing.
 

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

The eliminations are elating examples of wonderful wagering

The ultimate harness series, the championship Breeders Crowns, this year at Woodbine in Canada, presents all 12 finals on the same card this Oct. 29. The week before, however, on Oct. 21 and Oct. 22, Woodbine hosts a slew of elimination miles to prepare the fields for the finals. 

These are powerful races that often are dismissed by players, when in fact they can offer two important factors. First, they can offer good prices, overlays if you will, featuring horses that will make the final but are winning the elim off a good trip, a smart drive or any other fortunate situation. In other words, the best horses can go on to win the finals but may not win the elims.  

Plus, if there is more than one elim, the really hot horse in the division can only race in one elim, leaving the other open for an outside contender, an overlooked entry reaching his or her peak. In fact, the more elims raced in each division, the better the wagers that surface.  

Next, watching elims closely can reveal a surprise winner of a final. The trip handicappers are putting on their dear slayer hats and investigating every move in the elims. Horses getting stuck in traffic, making huge but losing brushes and other such common causes for bad performance lines in a race are the meat of the mighty bettor. In the past, this is how we have nailed some giant “Crown” final winners that few were willing to back. 

And then there is Woodbine. 

Of the two major Ontario-harness-circuit tracks, Woodbine is the least speed-biased, allowing for horses to make up good ground in the stretch. Good horses having troubled trips in the first half often make up for it with huge, late moves, sometimes uncharacteristically closing to get into the picture, if not win. Outsiders that have saved some ground use their one-brush punch for upsets.  

As always is the case in harness racing, a single horse in a field takes most of the win money and second, third and fourth choices tend to offer high returns, many of them based on odds far higher than the horses’ chances. So we put into play our usual search for the outsider-contender, the horse that can win at better odds than its chances. 

It takes courage in any race to buck a 4-5 shot (and that could be high for a harness favorite) but over and over again the best plays come against those horses. In the Crown, as well, the fields have a tendency to be more equal than the odds wagered upon the entrants deserve.  

So when a strong field of horses goes to post—and how much stronger can you get than the top divisional members that roll with the Crown?—you need that bravery to make money. Get your betting accounts in order, then and be ready for the Crown elims wagering experience.  

We are covering the events live those two nights, with special tweets and insider comments and info, through Twitter, as you watch and wager at TwinSpires. Thanks to the Hambletonian Society, we will have a direct communication with Woodbine sources for the best coverage available on the Internet.  

Next week we will be engaged in offering handicapping advice when the elim fields are revealed.