The Breeders Crown finals analysis for
Friday (Nov. 21) and Saturday (Nov. 22) continue from the TwinSpires harnessblog on the main site.
There will be only one more edition of this blog for 2014, which will be an epilogue
essay addressing the the season. It is scheduled for the week following the
finals.
This blog looks at the older events for both sexes on both gaits.
Friday, Nov. 21
Mares Trot ($250,000)
Bee A Magician will headline the wagering here, no doubt, but she will have to
work for this victory. Classic Martine has been a problem for her, especially
at the Meadowlands, and Ma Chere Hall goes for new connections (she chased
“Bee” a lot at three and picked up some good checks). D’Orsay, of course, is still
the highest priced winner we have supported this season, winning over the
summer to pay $100 or so, and she is always available to topple a field at a
price.
And then there’s Mistery Woman, who is getting better with age and recently
ignored by the public when winning. Last week’s 15-1 win by Handover Belle
depended upon Bee’s outland journey, while “Mistery” went off a notch less at
14-1. Mistery had the most impressive trip and should once again go off higher
than she deserves. Bee will pick up the place, most likely getting a far better
trip.
Saturday, Nov. 22
Mares Pace ($281,250)
Let’s allow the public to believe Anndrovette can win every Breeders Crown
Mares Pace in which she is entered and take the odds down too far so we can
rally with a price in this here-we-go-again group that always delivers deep
challenged miles. Two supplements, Yagonnakissmeornot and Venus Delight, have
more to lose than the regulars but don’t expect the others to make that an
edge. If the two or three that want the front get too frisky with the
fractions, the main closer, Rocklamation, will eat up the stretch with her
one-dimensional gait.
However, this could wind up a strategic win with a last-mare-standing finish.
Multi-talented Somwherovrarainbow will be in a good spot to avoid duels and dig
in late. As well, Camille is on the rail and may be gifted more room than usual
(she has disappointed a few times as a choice so perhaps she would like to be
on the board as an outsider).
Open Pace ($400,000)
There are only seven stalwart pacers here, yet there could be a good price on
Sweet Lou, considering he has not been scoring ones of late. He is still the
best here and could come right back to his seasonal shape and eat up all four
quarters. Some of these horses have loyal fans, so expect the win pool to be
spread out. Foiled Again, Clear Vision, Thinking Out Loud and State Treasurer
all have followers that will play for some kind of glory, as opposed to profit.
Open Trot ($500,000)
Four veteran trotters show up due to byes, so that means Commander Crowe,
Creatine, Intimidate and Market Share had a week off to prepare for this heavy
mile; heavy because the group is fast and experienced and each is full of his
or herself. The she is Maven, who won the elim impressively against the males
last week, going for the first time in the Takter barn. We were second last
week with Your So Vain and that race brings us to this race regardless of the
freshened foursome. One of that four, of course, is the foreign Commander
Crowe. How his style affects the mile remains to be seen but considering the
mixture of early-and-late speed here, Your So Vain is in the perfect spot and
could be the perfect price for a score (which his trainer, Ake Svanstedt, would
love to happen since his prize trotter, Sebastian K—who has beaten “Crowe” in
Europe—is not in this event).
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The Breeders
Crown Countdown blog and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with
archived reports on the results at the Hambletonian
Society web site, have brought bettors exclusive coverage through 2014.
Thank you for making our decisions a part of your wagering strategy.
The Canadian Pacing Derby is the
end-of-summer stage for the hard-nosed older pacers. It debuted in 1936 and
this year features last season’s 14-1 shock, Foiled Again and so many of the
foes that continue to pound the North American harness track surface for the
largest purses available to the division. The 2013 group is iron-clad speed and
stamina, the four-year-olds as swift as their elders, and all of them aim for
the October classic in Pennsylvania. The battle ensues Saturday, Aug. 31 at Mohawk Raceway.
Each field of these senior warriors
must be analyzed from every angle, considering they are so evenly matched that
only their peaking properties can give them an edge in any event.
This week, the edge the wagering
public will support is the one earned last weekend at Mohawk by A Rocknroll
Dance. In a stakes elim, he earned a speed badge with a stunning wire-to-wire
1:47.3 win. That is a record in both North America countries. Recency is so
powerful to harness handicappers that one speedy performance will attract many
players to A Rocknroll Dance this week but they are players that don’t subscribe to the “bounce theory.”
Certainly, A Rocknroll Dance has
improved off a slow start at four, which followed a slow second half of his
soph season. But regardless of last week’s mile, he is facing the same tough
group he has fallen to any number of times. As well, fans of Bolt The Duer
finally got a great race out of him last week, though his unusual wire-to-wire
mile brought up some track-bias concerns—few horses were able to close on fast
front-pacing horses last Saturday. Bolt The Duer has been know to, when racing
with his division last season and this, be at his best when he can come off a
good cover trip while a leader fires all of the fractions.
So those two may have scorched the
track last week but cases can be made for any of their foes in this $651,000
event filled with Breeders Crown hopefuls.
Sweet Lou has shown much more power at
four than he did when mistakenly annointed champ status at three. He has been
super with this group and can never be tossed out (he won for us at $19 this
season, a reward we recognized due to his improvement).
Clear Vision raced super in his elim;
he got second after an energy-draining start.
Foiled Again won last year at a
shocking 14-1. He likes this track under any surface circumstances. There is a
reason he is the richest standardbred ever and you can bet last week’s mile by
A Rocknroll Dance doesn’t daunt him in the least.
Aracache Hanover takes good care of
himself when a smooth trip comes his way. He also has speed and being a
dual-trick pony helps him earn at this level.
Heston Blue Chip was the champ soph
last season and he has faired well against the elders, though lately he seems
intimidated. But he is strong and sound and has not yet completed his
contribution to the division.
Pet Rock has proven himself royally
this season. We thought he was better than the aforementioned soph champ last
season but it was a tight crop of contenders and he needed to grow a bit. He
has matured with finesse and cannot be ruled out.
Atochia is a veteran that goes far
back with us, as we cashed in early on his elder career when he was startlingly
supple at Yonkers. He has shocked some fields and is usually overlooked when
among this ilk.
Dapper Dude may be the weakest in a
strong field but has what it takes to belong among them. He is apt to come from
behind like Bolt The Duer and pick up pieces when his cohorts get too snappy
sharing the fractions.
Also eligible is Michael’s Power, who
this season has shown little and is yet to take a true stance against this
herd.
How you wager should be based on a
subjective value odds line but be warned that such opinions could lead you to
overlays that most likely will not include last week’s elim winners. This could
be a good thing because Sweet Lou, Pet Rock and Foiled Again may meet your
value standards and you will have a better chance than you think to take down
last week’s so-called speedsters.
Follow major BC hopefuls on their
road to the October Breeders Crown at Pocono Downs at the Breeders Crown Countdown blog
and the TwinSpires harness blog weekly, with archived reports on the results at
the Hambletonian Society web site.
