Friday, September 21, 2012

Pacing mares in Milton at Mohawk

The older pacing mares division is a near-exclusive club by this time of the season. As a tight group of four-year-olds and up battle in only a handful of big events, the group also competes in opens and invites other weeks, each femme clawing her way to the Breeders Crown for the last big breath of glory this year (and for some of them the last competition they will endure before taking on the role of boordmare). 

At Mohawk on Saturday, Sept. 22, some of the top mares in the division (the group was absent from all major affairs at the Delaware, Ohio meet last week) fight for pieces of the $384,000 purse of the Milton Final.  

Morning-line favorite Put On A Show will leave from the rail and get a lot of wagering attention. But she will have to have some help from trip and luck to win this one. 

The division hails no domineering femme and so it goes that the morning line is spread between the latest fiery dames. 

Drop The Ball gets second-choice status on the line, with Anndrovette third and Rebeka Bayama fourth. 

Though none of these proposed prices are unfair on any line, it does seem that gals like Krispy Apple and Rocklamation are especially high and will offer a lot. 

Both of those mares finished third in their respective Milton elims but Krispy Apple appears to be the dangerously placed mare in this group. Her recent performances are flowing with excuses. She has been less productive at four racing against older mares but nonetheless she bears resemblance to the kind of upset property we like. 

A good priced overlay, then, is in order.  

Sept. 22’s New York Sires Stakes finals at Yonkers will host any number of Breeders Crown eligibles. We looked over the big races and found which eligibles we liked at a decent price.  

The sophomore-filly pace final may interest you, as Ramalama gets another shot to beat the big choices. She is a guaranteed longshot going here and she has been showing enough spunk lately to have gotten into this final (she is only one for a dozen in the win column this year). Trainer Richie Silverman has had to deal with some tough competition in this division, most of which are here. With Jim Morrill, Jr. going from post 4 and a little luck on the half-mile she could pull this one off. 

In the three-year-old colt trot, Archangel will be bet to the utmost last penny, leaving room for Coraggioso to go off at a decent price. He may get a slight edge since Archangel has to negotiate leaving from post 8, which can cost him a step or two at the end at Yonkers. 

How to beat Heston Blue Chip in the soph-colt pace is a chore. But if Major Bombay stays in the race after failing only days before in the Little Brown Jug, he may be best from the rail, even if it is a hair or a nose.
 
Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

‘Jug’ week co-features loom boldly

Some of the season’s top trotters and pacers from divisions other than the two featured in the Jugette and Little Brown Jug battle for cash and prestige during the Delaware, Ohio meet’s biggest days of racing, Wednesday and Thursday, Sept. 19 and Sept. 20. 

Earlier in the Jugette program on Sept. 19, soph-filly trotters go in two $51,000 divisions of the Buckette. The first division has eight relatively unknown division members, with a soft early choice, Oasis Dream.  

We offer a shot with Miss Fidget, Ed Lohmeyer’s filly driven here by John Campbell. The filly’s last race was marred by a break but coming off of five races at five different tracks she was sent off in a classy state-bred at Yonkers at 7-2. We feel she will be dismissed by bettors while still deserving a shot in a field not swarming with talent, to say the least.  

In Buckette two, the magnificent Maven may very well snap a track record with Yannick Gingras pumping her from start to finish. She appears to out-class this field by a mile, making it difficult to play against her to win. As a key, you may want to hook her up with Miss Chip K, who danced with the femme stars in the filly Zweig and was a close third. 

On Sept. 20, soph-colt trotters charge in The Old Oaken Bucket. There are only eight colts here and none of them have seen their names on the marquee during main events for the division. So, the $125,800 purse should be making them and their connections drool. 

The public choice will be Fusion Man, coming off of a major Kentucky state-bred final, his second win in a row at The Red Mile. Jeff Smith’s colt has done little wrong in eight races this season, though he has not taken on the best of the breed. 

Frost Bites K, however, has been in the thick of the top colts this season and though he failed to get a berth in the Hambletonian he has readily taken on that group. His most recent win is at the Meadows where he was overlooked at 14-1. Post 7 in a field of eight could turn some people off, which is great for the win price.  

Older trotting mares take the forefront in the $153,000 Ms Versatility Final. This thin division still has some kick to it, but at this point in the season, which ones are the outsiders? 

Cedar Dove will probably indulge in driver Ron Pierce’s urging to get to the top early but a lot of people will be concerned considering the mare’s last two races. She quit in both, although last week she did have an excuse. Beatgoeson Hanover was awesome at Vernon, passing Cedar Dove. However, pulling off that trip on this oval is not so easy. As well, Action-Broadway was also in that mix, hanging badly to finish fifth.  

The dangerous speed is Frenchfysnvinegar. Should she out-gun Cedar Dove to the top or be quick enough from post 7 to get a spot second, she will make a three-quarters move that will be filled with trot from saving ground. That is the scenario to follow considering most bettors will dismiss this speedy seven-year-old. 

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.
 
Cartoon by Thom Pye

 

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Kentucky conflicts at Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs presents a few events with Breeders Crown hopefuls in freshmen divisions. Filly pacers highlight the Kentucky Stallion Management stakes, while colts go in splits of The Elevation, all on the Sept. 15 program. 

The Elevation’s first division hosts six with a purse of $89,600.  

From the 6 hole, He Rocks The Moon is from the red-hot Tony Alegna barn and one of three sired by Rocknroll Hanover. He has won two of six starts in his first season of pacing and should take to the Indiana mile well after taking a mark of 1:53 on a five-eighths track.  

The second Elevation field features seven and is worth $90,600.  

Raise The Gin was sixth in an Indiana Sires Stakes Final here last week but can’t be faulted for that. The seven-for-10 winner by Always A Virgin has enough speed to take a shot at dominating the other six here if he leaves with the kind of power his sire often demonstrated.  

The filly pacers go first in the $118500 Kentuckiana Stallion Management stake, division one. 

The Somebeachsomewhere-daughter from post 1, Exotic Beach, is still a maiden but there is no reason she cannot change that status in this event. She is worth the shot at a price. Her qualifier mark will turn bettors off, no doubt, and the obvious Always About Katey should get favorite status with five of six wins on her side. 

The second Kentuckiana split offers $117,250, with seven on the gate. 

Nikki Beach, another Somebeachsomewhere product, has been racing with a lot better and should be among the top three on the board, hopefully the second or third behind Ohmybelle and Donna Lee.    

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

 

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Big guns still firing in Canada

The Grand Circuit concludes at Mohawk with three big affairs. There is a pair of Champlain Stakes for frosh pacers of both sexes and a Simcoe Stakes soph-colt pace.

The $252,521 Simcoe Stakes brings together a few stars and a few new faces from the glamour-boy pacer division. All in all there are a dozen going behind the gate.

It may be a giant task for our hero, A Rocknroll Dance, to handle the traffic while leaving from post 12. Although it is the second tier he will be instantly trapped and challenged as the wave of speedballs before him take flight early. As well, Michaels Power will shave fractions to look for a good spot, if not the front, early.

Even if the speed divides itself differently, this looks like a mile that can be won handily from the mid pack with a move as late as midway through the journey. We see it as an event rife for an upset. This is why for the first time since we nabbed Simply Business as a longshot (in last year’s Metro Stakes), we are going to back him here. He is the classiest of the top seven as they line up and Ron Pierce will drive with his usual relentless dismissal of traffic.
 
The first of the two Champlains is for frosh-filly pacers and is worth $226,763. Hot-streaker I Luv The Nitelife is here, from post 11, and will get a load of dough to win.

Parlee Beach has had two disappointing outings with excuses. We feel Bob McIntosh’s student, a daughter of Somebeachsomewhere, is yet to give us a profile of her power. She may do that here and do it without the public support she has received in her last few outings. The public is fickle and with the likes of what she is up against here we feel the public could abandon her just as she peaks to a big price win.

The colt pace is worth $261,829 and presents some Metro Pace co-stars bound to be bet upon heavily. Many people felt Odds On Equuleus may have won the Metro Pace but for a few steps missed in a late charge. Apprentice Hanover comes from tier two here but will still get a lot of support after his buoyant Metro Pace performance.

This leaves us with a suggested outside contender, Rockin Amadeus. No one expected his gutsy move in the Metro Pace, which assisted in the performances of the aforementioned as they went after Captaintreacherous.

Rockin Amadeus’ rocket move from post 7, getting firmly to the lead at 30-1, prompted Vegas Vacation to make a strenuous move to take the lead over. Then, “Amadeus” was trapped behind dead duelers as Johny Rock went nose to nose with “Vegas.”

There was no room to use whatever Amadeus has left in the stretch as the duelers backed up and the big guns closed but we made notice of that trip and under the circumstances in this field, like the chances of a Rockin Amadeus upset.  

Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Cane Pace looming; Grand Circuit at Mohawk features primary players


The Big ‘Dance’ Rocks The Cane

Click here for Cane Pace essay, analysis ...

On Friday, Aug. 31, frosh-colt trotters battle for big money in the Champlain Stakes at Mohawk, part of the big Grand Circuit weekend (see TwinSpires blog for analysis of other major events). 

The first split is worth $140,914, the kind of purse most of these youngsters hope to see again as their careers ensue.  

Jim Oscarsson’s Aperfectyankee, who we gave you in the Peter Haughton and who won to become the 2013 Hambletonian future-book choice, is here and looking terrific; too good, in fact, to do anything but key in an exacta. There could be a decent return using Broadway Prince second. This developing youngster has good reason to be in this group and may be on his way to being a nemesis to the top choice into their soph seasons.  

The next split for the same division is worth $138,915 and Cool Victory could be the upset contender at a price. Although he has some breaking issues, he has done well despite the jumps and is well bred enough to improve once those young quirks are handled.  

Sept. 1 at Mohawk delivers some of our glamour-boy trotting pals from the Hambletonian Trail (cartoon by Thom Pye).  

The single split is worth $246,521 and we are all over Little Brown Fox.  

Hometown favorite Knows Nothing, who we beat last week with Presdigitator, also in this field, will get plenty of support, leaving “Fox” with a fair price. His loss to Googoo Gaagaa and Market Share was mainly a loss to the latter, who got a better trip while Fox cut the fractions.  

“Gaagaa” is not here and we feel Fox is much better than Knows Nothing on an even keel, so we should take advantage of the home-fans’ bias. 

At Pocono on Sept. 1 Pennsylvania Sires Stakes finals are worth $200,000. 

For top filly trotter Check Me Out, the soph-filly trot conclusion should be an afterthought. A pass is our choice. 

Soph-filly pacers bring us back to Economy Terror for a comeback off of a dull effort last week. She should be raring to go against this tepid group. 

More Hambo alumni from this season adorn the soph-colt trot final. My Mvp could continue to show great form now that his great form is winning him races. Frost Bites K may have some trouble from post 8 but demands attention in exotics. 

Finally, the soph-colt pace is a hometown showcase for Sweet Lou. He is the champ of the state-bred’s division and doesn’t have much to go up against here for some easy money—for him, that is, because bettors will be offered nothing.
 
Keep up with the top horses in the divisions racing to the Crown at the Breeders Crown Countdown and read archived result stories at Hambletonian Society and get your account at TwinSpires to keep up with all the great harness bets.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Hambo boys, older pacers go for gold -- update on top pace and trot

The Hambletonian field final has once again shown the strength of the participants in other events. The August classic is usually considered a “key race” when the entire field, regardless of where they finished at the New Meadowlands the first Saturday in August, goes on to show their muscle in other classy events.
 
Saturday, Aug. 25, Knows Nothing and Prestidigitator are the Hambo has-beens that are sparkling after the fact.
 
Knows Nothing returned big, with Prestidigitator right behind him, in the event that brings them both to the $130,000 Ontario Sires Stakes Gold Final at Mohawk.
 
We liked Prestidigitator in the Hambo and we liked him last week. The crowd will be all over Jody Jamieson and “Nothing,” so we like Prestidigitator to win here, slightly overlooked in lieu of Nothing.
 
Also on the Mohawk card, the top older pacers go at it to earn a place in next week’s Canadian Pacing Derby final but contesting in a single mile.
 
Betterthancheddar, the Breeders Crown soph-colt pace champion from last year, gets the 8 hole against some others interested in this year’s classic.

Allthergltrsisgold has been responsive in Canada and looks to make a mark to prove he has the stuff that makes Breeders Crown heroes. This year’s event could be the spot for him, certainly if he wins next week, but even here against We Will See, Bettor Sweet and the aforementioned Betterthancheddar. Certainly a good price is involved if he manages to take this and go on to the final.

***UPDATE

For updated betting analysis on the Aug. 26 Cane Pace elim at Tioga and the 'Zweigs' for glamour-boy trotters at Vernon that same day, click here.
 
You can make your bets at TwinSpires and you can follow all of the result stories at the Hambletonian home page.

Saturday, August 18, 2012

Top earners look for big second half of season

As August hits midstream and the second half of the season gets underway, there is a lot of great wagering ahead for both sexes in both gaits of all the Breeders Crown divisions.  

We will be covering many of those races, concentrating on the eligibles (horses can supplement to an event if their sires have been nominated; click here for stallion nomination list for 2012). Along with our TwinSpires harness blogs, the previews for the weekends and the news and notes on Mondays), suggested contenders in events will appear, featuring our usual slant on finding prices that defy the obvious.  

Below is a list of the top money-earners in all divisions, as of Aug. 14. A “/ne” after the horse’s name means he must supplement to be involved this year. All others are eligible. 

Oddly enough, the number-one earner in all divisions this year, Michaels Power, will have to hope for a great second half of the season so his connections could consider supplementing him.  
This list offers no millionaires as of the date posted. On the precipice of a mil are the first two on the list, both sophomores. Three-year-olds stack the list, with 13 in the top 20; four in the top 10 are trotters, two of those sophomores, one of those a filly. 
Grand Circuit events could dominate the paths to the “Crown” elims. Top horses and more eligibles that can earn big dollars in the next few months will be featured at the Illinois fairs, the Delaware, Ohio Little Brown Jug meet and The Red Mile’s hosting of lucrative stakes. 
Check the current TwinSpires harness blog for some of the horse below racing Sunday, Aug. 19 and return here often for updates and insights as the Breeders Crown Countdown progresses.

Check the current TwinSpires harness blog for some of the horse below racing Sunday, Aug. 19 and return here often for updates and insights as the Breeders Crown Countdown progresses. 

All-aged top money-earners as of Aug. 14, 2012

Michaels Power 3cP/ne

-Market Share 3cT

-Thinking Out Loud 3cP

-Mister Herbie OhT-4

-Check Me Out 3fT

-A Rocknroll Dance 3cP

-Archangel 3cT

-American Jewel 3fP

-Golden Receiver OhP-7

-Foiled Again OhP-8

-Personal Style 3fT

-Guccio 3cT

-Time To Roll 3cP

-Betterthancheddar OhP-4

-Anndrovette OmP-5

-Bolt The Duer 3cP

-Chapter Seven OhT-4

-Pet Rock 3cP

-Rocklamation OmP-4

-Sweet Lou 3cP

-Win Missy B 3fT

-Heston Blue Chip 3cP

-Dapper Dude 3cP

-Atochia OhP-7

-Arch Madness OhT-8

-My Mvp 3cT

-Romantic Moment 3fP

Googoo Gaagaa 3cT/ne

-Put On A Show OmP-5

-Stormin Normand 3cT

Winning Mister OhT-6/ne

-Knows Nothing 3cT

Special T Rocks OhP-4g/ne

-Superstar Hanover 3fT

-Beer Summit 3cT

-Pembroke Heat Wave OmT-6

-We Will See OhP-5

-Maven 3fT

-Aracache Hanover OhP-5

Breakin The Law 3cPg/ne

-Little Brown Fox 3cT

-Daylon Magician OhT-4

-For A Dancer 3fT

-Tarpon Hanover 2cP

Dynamic Youth 3cPg/ne

-Camille OmP-4

-Coraggioso 3cT

-Major Look 3fP